First, I’m back. It was a good vacation, but now I’m back and you will be seeing a lot of me around these parts over the coming weeks. If I slip accidentally into Spanish, please forgive me. It’s going to be a rough transition to not saying “oye guey que pedo” every time I see someone. (Above is a picture of Puebla, where I was)
Secondly, it’s time to get to know your Second Half predictions. I previously posted the competition rules and now that I’m reunited with my lovely laptop, I will be tracking how well everyone is doing throughout the rest of the season.
- All but one entry had Barcelona winning the second half of the season, choosing Real Madrid instead as the top pick.
- Only one person chose a team other than Xerez for the bottom spot, going with Sporting Gijon instead.
- No one had the same set of predictions as anyone else.
- Zaragoza is currently at the top of the table after one match–tied with RM. That is awesome. Xerez is above Barça because I’m weighting GF more than a lack of GA (meaning 2-1 is better than 0-1, in this case because 2 is greater than 1 and they both have the same GD). That is crazy.
- If the standings were final today, the winner would have 15 points and one player would have negative points. I would not be the person with 15 points nor the person with -1.
My predictions are not predictions, per se. I didn’t actually guess as to what was going to happen. Instead, I had good old Microsoft do the math for me to see if the rational minds out there in BFB-landia were able to beat a computer program. I naturally used my newly enhanced Pythagorean Expectation table (thanks Jose61!) that uses an exponent of 1.36 to calculate the expected returns.
I fed in the data from the first half of the season (GF and GA) and then assumed the same expected points-earned percentage for the second half. This was the result, in descending order: Barcelona, Real Madrid, Valencia, Mallorca, Sevilla, Depor, Villarreal, Getafe, Ath. Bilbao, Atl. Madrid, Sporting Gijon, Osasuna, Rac. Santander, Malaga, Valladolid, Almeria, Espanyol, Zaragoza, Tenerife, Xerez.
That is currently worth a blistering 6 points in our prediction game. Naturally, it will be worth far more later on in the competition, but so will everyone else’s predictions. Xerez is already screwing things up by having won a match when PE said they would earn only 6 points throughout the entire half season.
I will be updating you most weeks with Second Half Prediction facts of interest and will be publishing that week’s current table as well. This week’s table:
If anyone knows a reliable website to keep track of this table for me, that’d be quite helpful. As it is, I’m keeping track of it all myself, which is fun, but not as fun as you’d think. If any of you had distinctive ways of making your own predictions, let us know in the comments.
Much more tomorrow, I promise.