They’re talking about refs, lots of draws, and the possibility of Guardiola not renewing. None of this concerns me. None of this is remotely interesting. Real Sociedad is playing at the Camp Nou this weekend? Okay, then. We’ll focus on that for 2 hours Saturday afternoon. We’ll purchase Gareth Bale in the summer, Iniesta will recover from his injuries and score the greatest goal known to man when he jumps 50 feet in the air and doesn’t a double somersault flying chilena from his own box. Guardiola will renew. These things are written in stone.

The powers that be can’t keep a good man down. First Guardiola screams about how you can dry out the pitch all you want but Captain Caveman will swing in on his Tarzan vine and decimate your careful planning. Then he takes his kids to a basketball game. My friend CJ and I discussed it:

You may know them as the perennial third-place team, a team of despicable bat-men, or perhaps they’re your “second” team in Spain. Perhaps they’re even you’re first team in Spain and you’re slumming it at BFB with your second team (or maybe you come here simply to read the outrageously well-written articles by graceful, erudite Adonises and Athenas). Whatever your affiliation with los che, it’s probably sufficient to say that you’re not going to underestimate them. They are, after all, the perennial third-place team and used to be big on the European stage. They’re still capable.

Yet it’s the Copa del Rey. It’s the thing Sergio Ramos couldn’t even care enough about to not smash under a bus. Sure, it’s the semifinals and we all love hardware. The Triplete was all the more magnificent because it wasn’t a Doblete. And yet. It’s the type of preview that makes me want to curl up in a ball and not write for a couple of days.

The cavalry rapidly arrived in the form of my friend CJ, instant messaging me:

CJ: http://www.minijuegos.com/Messis-Hand/11767#
Me: Thank you. Now, write my Valencia preview. I’ve already started it for you.
CJ: Just make it a Hleb is gone party post.
Me: HLEB IS GONE!?!?
CJ: He is! Officially!
Me: OH PEACH SCHNAPPS
CJ: And [Jonathan dos Santos] got promoted.

From there it sort of devolved into a bunch of blathering about Guardiola being wonderful in press conferences (actual quote from CJ : “kfhsdjkgykfhgjkdfhgjkldf”) and me trying to get work done and somehow not go dancing through the cubicle maze. Cuenca also renewed and was promoted (and now wears number 23 and signed through June 30, 2015), so it’s going to be fun to talk about how big our squad is once everyone has recovered. For now, it’s 18 to the copero front lines.

Valencia smacked the molasses out of Levante in the quarters (4-1 and 0-3), but succumbed to Racing Santander 2-2 in the league this past weekend, ensuring their bad run of form in that competition reached 4 matches. They haven’t won since beating Malaga 2-0 at the Mestalla to end 2011. They’ve drawn against Villarreal, Osasuna, and Racing and even lost to Real Sociedad. Yet they’re still in 3rd. We can beat them, but we won’t.

Official Prediction: 2-2. Newspapers scream about crisis and we all have aneurysms.

Oh, did I mention that Hleb is gone? Pop the champagne, Laporta-style:

I was optimistic about their chances going in. They had retained all but Santi Cazorla and Joan Capdevila over the summer (and that perennial goal-monster Jozy Altidore, of course), meaning they had the majority of their team intact. They were missing a playmaker, yes, and a very hit-or-miss left back–also true–and I wrote “Villarreal appears set for a dive down into the table, but the weakness I see in other teams is the ballast that will keep them up at periscope depth.” I was wrong only about one thing: Villarreal was not going to be buoyed by my terrible nautical terminology.

It turns out they’re terrible. They just defeated fellow relegation battlers Sporting Gijon (Preciado’s mustache must have been trimmed for the encounter), but that’s just they’re 4th victory of the season. Their other victories were against Mallorca, Rayo Vallecano, and Real Betis. All have been at home, where they’re a solid 4W-4D-1L (15GF, 10GA). It is virtually identical to Barcelona’s away record: 4W-4D-1L (16GF, 10GA). Roughly speaking, it’s an even match between the 2nd placed side and the 17th placed side.

With Real Madrid facing off against last placed Real Zaragoza at the Bernabeu in the match prior to their own encounter, Barcelona are likely to be facing another 8 point gap. I think it would be fair to say that anything less from los blancos could be fairly treated as an epic tropiezo. The La Liga equivalent of this. For Barça, though, there’s a match to be played regardless of that outcome (no doubt if they lose, Mourinho will ride in the ref’s car all the way home berating him).

Villarreal are no true slouches. Yes, they’ve lost a large number of games (8) and they have the T-15th worst defense in the league with 28 goals allowed, but they have the T-8th best defense at home (10). They drew with Valencia 2-2 at the Madrigal and before that they drew with Real Sociedad at home. They’re capable of stealing points, that’s for sure. Anyone thinking that their 17th place situation is going to stop them from playing their hearts out in front of their own fans is crazy or hasn’t been paying attention the last few years to what goes on in that stadium.

Villarreal’s squad is this: Diego López (GK), César (GK), Mariño (GK), Joan Oriol, Mario, Gonzalo, Ángel, Marchena, Zapata, Musacchio, Marcos Senna, Bruno, Cani, Camuñas, Borja Valero, De Guzmán, Castellani, Marco Ruben, Joselu.

That squad is missing even more key ingredients, including Nilmar as well as long-term injury Giuseppe Rossi. They’ve signed no one in the transfer window, but have also not let anyone go. They remain dangerous given that it’s Marco Ruben that’s their leading goalscorer with 6. Borja Valero comes in with the most assists (4) and holds down their midfield region alongside Marcos Senna. He’s not particularly goalscory this year with just 3 to his name, but he’s capable when the mood takes him, as it did last week with this stunner (better quality at 4:50 here).

Barça are down a few players, yet can still field a rather competitive starting 11. The squad sent to El Madrigal is thus: Valdés, Pinto, Piqué, Fàbregas, Puyol, Xavi, Messi, Thiago, Mascherano, Sergio Busquets, Adriano, Abidal, Alves, Pedro, Jonathan dos Santos, Isaac Cuenca, Sergi Roberto, Cristian Tello.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pep tinker with the lineup even though he knows it’s extremely risky. There’s Valencia on Wednesday in the Copa semifinals, after all. Yet losing any more points to Madrid is, as it was before, an invitation to losing the league, even this early. 5 points is surmountable, but 7 or 8 points seems extremely unlikely. So why not start a solid 11 and get the points? Then bother about Valencia on Wednesday. We’re already missing Iniesta and Alexis from this past Wednesday, so tinkering is a must, but not the point of starting, say, Pedro, right?

Valdes, Alves, Pique, Mascherano, Adriano, Busquets, Xavi, Thiago, Cesc, Messi, Pedro

Official Prediction: 1-2. A very hard game that wears the team down even more and causes a loss in Valencia on Wednesday. Which is okay if we beat Real Sociedad on the rebound. Goals by Adriano and Messi.

Fame and fortune appear to have different effects on different people. Keith Richards describes Mick Jagger as turning from a likeable guy to a sort of uncontrollable showman once the fame went to his head. The same was true of guitarist Brian Jones, but that mostly acid doing the talking after a while. And yes, I’m reading Richards’ autobiography, Life. It’s pretty interesting even though I don’t know much about the Stones or the time in which they came into being. Still, it got me thinking: people who are under intense pressure to produce the best thing in the world at whatever they’re doing (painting, music, football), are as likely as anyone else to crumble or change. Bernd Schuster said that Pepe, a man he signed for a lot of money, is a different person when he puts on his jersey. He wasn’t defending Pepe’s actions–indeed it seems he was doing the opposite–but he was pointing out that the red mist, as a Marine friend of mine called it, descends and you’re changed until it lifts.

That hat is super imposed, isn't it?

You become aware of your own privilege and your own expectations rise to meet that thought. When you’re wronged, there’s a propensity to overreaction. That willingness to cross the line after you’ve been humiliated, shown up, or antagonized (whatever you wish to call what Barça does to RM), is wrong. Perhaps more importantly for what we’re talking about here, it’s also a fundamental a weakness. I firmly believe that Busquets’ willingness to go down too easily is a weakness. I think it harms the team by making refs think, rightly or wrongly, that Barça is faking most of the time. The same is true of off-the-ball incidents like Pepe’s footloose moment. If a team is constantly seen stomping on opponents after the play is over or when the ref isn’t looking, the next match they’re more likely to receive harsher treatment for more innocuous fouls.

When Messi is slammed to the ground in the box and there’s no call, that’s probably thanks to someone else’s faking earlier or even in a different match. When Pepe gets a red card for his studs up challenge on Alves (whether there’s contact or not is immaterial), that’s the previous 20 fouls and after-the-fact video evidence calling it for the ref. That’s natural. Most of the time it’s the player in question who gets the next card or no-call, but sometimes the whole team suffers.

The media coverage of Pepe’s descent into the fires of impetuousness can actually exacerbate the situation by putting even more pressure on a player who is already carrying a lot of weight around on their shoulders. That, in turn, can cause Busi to fall over even more and Pepe to stomp even harder. Being called a cheat can simply make you more of a cheater as you try to make up for the perception.

Does that, then, cause your coach to kind of freak out? Both Tim Vickery and Sid Lowe seem to argue yes, though Sid goes through the motions of talking specifically about what Mourinho did to curb the effects of the leak to Marca and then what happened after that. It’s fascinating in a train-wreck sort of way as Mourinho becomes more hunkered down in his storm shelter and the press go in for the kill, sensing weakness and dreaming of such grand carrion. Perhaps it will all backfire, as both Sergio Ramos and Iker Casillas have been quick to point out that they’re going to lay their lives on the line in tomorrow’s game, for Madrid’s pride, for their own pride.

Yet if they do that, if they really do lay it all out there, will they lose even more than they can possibly gain? At the Camp Nou, the crowd will influence the ref. It’s the way these things work, whether you want them to or not. Their performance in the first leg pretty much ensures a raucous crowd full of whistles and fever-pitch partisanship. When Messi is scythed down, there will be howls of the utmost pain from the stands. When it happens again, it will be for blood. Cards will be shown more quickly and the match will settle into a rhythm in which the slightest touch is exaggerated and the ref is constantly forced to make instant decisions regarding the bookability of fouls. It won’t be easy.

The ref for the match is Teixera Vitienes and he’ll have his hands full. Word on the street is that Pepe, Lassana Diarra, and Esteban Granero are all fitness doubts for the match, but I expect them all to be available and to see the first two play. Di Maria and Sami Khedira look set to miss the match with injuries while Carvalho and Kaka seem to be fully recovered and ready to go.

You’ll forgive me, I hope, for not really caring who they put out. Whatever the plan and whatever the lineup, they’re going to try to win by kicking Barça out of the stadium. That should be clear by now. If they don’t try that, they will be trounced. They’ll press high and they’ll try to force mistakes. With their talent and their athleticism, they can keep that up for a while, but not without the occasional foul to keep the tricky little midgets from running around them. As the match wears on, that means the pressure, the need to win, will mount and they’ll find themselves leaving the boot in, studs raking “accidentally” more and more often. Cards will mount. A red card will be shown. And then the polemic will live on for another cycle. So it goes.

That’s pressure for you. And Barça removed a good deal of the negative pressure from themselves by scoring those 2 second-half goals to shift all of that to their opponents. Remember, a 0-1 win for Madrid means Barça goes through (aggregate score would be 2-2 and Barça would have 2 away goals to 1). Madrid must score at least 2 goals to advance, meaning they must come out to play. And could lead to some nasty collisions between the two teams when FCB starts to threaten.

Quickly, the possible outcomes:

• Any win for Barça and Barça are through
• Any draw and Barça are through
• FCB 0-1 RM and Barça are through (2-2 aggregate)
• FCB 1-2 RM and the match goes to extra time (3-3 aggregate)
• Any win for RM other than those mentioned above and RM are through (ex 0-2, 3-4, 5-13–basically: x-x+2)

So there you have it. The simplest way to think of it is: win and we’re through, draw and we’re through, lose and we’re out. That’ll simplify things quite a bit for you.

Who, though, defends the colors against the hordes of capitaleños trying to storm our fair city? Probably:

Pinto, Alves, Piqué, Puyol, Abidal, Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta, Cesc, Messi, Alexis

Just going out on a limb here. Pedro could start, but he’s been playing like butt recently, so that seems unlikely. Cuenca provides width, but has been youthfully, exuberantly missing for a good while now. I actually forgot he was on the field against Betis for the entire first half.

Pinto just signed a contract extension with the team (yay!), meaning he’s certainly going to start the match tomorrow. He remains our Copa keeper and so we’ll start him. Because that’s how we roll, no matter how bad his keeper error in the first leg was. And it was bad. I feel like I would have saved that, that’s how bad a non-save it was. That is not because I am better than Pinto, far from it, but rather because I would have panicked and curled up into a little ball, thus deflecting the ball to safety since it would have been shot straight at me along the ground. And I would have worn the resulting bruise as a badge of courage for as long as it lasted.

Here’s that fame and fortune thing again, though: Barça is full of the most famous and most fortunate (see what I did there?) of players, yet they don’t seem to be succumbing to pressure in the same way. What Madrid has done is built a need to defeat Barça in order to succeed. What Barça has done is nearly the same, but the pressure is off because of the previous wins. Now that Mourinho appears to be Barça’s whipping boy, Barça’s players can go in prepared and focused on a particular game plan instead of nervous that they’ll screw it all up. Guardiola’s position as coach is secure whether he wins a single trophy this year or not. Mourinho’s is not.

The differences between the players seems fairly obvious too: Jorge Mendes is your agent or you are not important. Perhaps I’m wrong about that, but here are the players who Jorge Mendes represents on the RM squad: Pepe, Carvalho, Cristiano Ronaldo, di Maria, and Coentrao. Here is who Jorge Mendes also represents: Jose Mourinho. Is there much doubt why Mourinho gave little known and even less used Castilla defender Pedro Mendes playing time in a Champions League group stage match? No points if you guess who his agent is. One thing that I should note here is that Jorge Mendes appears to be a very, very good agent and has his hand in lots of cookie jars. His clients on RM’s roster are also amazing players (whatever my bias says at other points, they’re talented) so it’s not hard to see why they get playing time. But they were purchased over other, potentially as good players, because of Jorge Mendes. And the case of Pedro Mendes appears (appears–I don’t know for sure!) to be favoritism thanks to his relative lack of playing time even with Castilla (7 appearances in 21 matches if Wikipedia is up-to-date).

Jorge Mendes: fancier (and probably richer) than you

These differences, real or imagined, seem to be galvanizing a sort of terrible anti-Mourinho climate in Madrid. The opposite is true in Barcelona, where (as far as I know) no super agent controls half the locker room and the coaching staff and maybe that’s coming out now. There are haves and have nots in Barcelona, but they appear to be “can you dominar el balon or not?” questions rather than who represents you. In a world where everyone is absurdly talented, little things like who your agent is can be huge things.

As long as Messi, Xavi, and the rest of the team don’t fall into the drugs and rock’n'roll lifestyle of the Rolling Stones, things shouldn’t fall apart. Certainly there will be players who simply don’t mesh with the overall system (Hleb, Ibrahimovic, even Eto’o), but Guardiola appears to be bringing everyone together and making them a cohesive unit rather than building them into a juggernaut capable of ripping everything in front of them to shreds so help me God. That’s part of the away “doldrums” the team has been experiencing, yet they’ve also won twice at the Bernabeu (who else can say that over the last few years?) and have put together the second best away record in the league.

The pressure is off, though. Barça have won it all in the last couple of years and while everyone wants to continue winning it all, they don’t have to. We, the fans, just want them to. If they don’t, we’re not raging against all things Guardiola or whoever we’re blaming for the loss. We’re moving on to the next match, where our expectations shift to “let’s pick this up” instead of “let’s get a manita”. That’s healthy.

Madrid fans are ticked, no matter what’s going on, if they keep losing to Barça and getting bounced from tournaments. The most recent loss must have been extra hard because they have the tools to attack for 90 minutes, but instead chose to go a full match with a regiment of defensive midfielders and an actual trench in front of the goal fronted by barbed wire. And they still lost. So now there’s morepressure to perform at the Camp Nou. There’s more pressure to do something spectacular and finally beat Barcelona in a way that really hurts.

Official Prediction: 1-1. I think the game gets bogged down in midfield (read: fouls) and we squeak out. Our goal by Messi, because it’s in the Camp Nou.

Also, Happy Birthday to Xavi, who turns as old as Gandalf today, but has just as much magic as that old geezer too. Kari demands that I link to this (admittedly awesome) picture of him.

And, yeah:

Let's hope for better field conditions

Liga Preview: Málaga – Barcelona, Sunday 12noon ET, GolTV

It’s the first week of the season, everyone! Time to celebrate! There’s a full 38 matches ahead of us and we’ve got quite the schedule lined up for the next–wait, what? Oh, it’s actually the midway point, we’re just calling it the first match of the season? Why would we do that? Oh, RFEF is completely insane? Right. I’d forgotten about that.

So it’s Málaga now, the new big boys on the block, or so they’d have you think. The odd thing is, I’m not sure why they’re not doing better than they are. Yet I bet against them before the season started, saying they wouldn’t make the Champions League spot so many said they would. They’re rich, they’re talented, and they’ve got a good manager, but they’re not really a team yet. They don’t have an identity you can point to and say “this is how Málaga rolls.” They don’t roll. They’re just Málaga.

Their offseason additions were something you could nod at and say “Shnikies, that’s some good stuff.” Expenditures topped €50m with Santi Cazorla being prized from Villarreal for €19m on one of the final days of the transfer window. They brought in Joaquin and Diego Buonanotte, Ruud van Nistelrooy and Jérémy Toulalan. Sergio Sánchez and Nacho Monreal. Martín Demichelis and Joris Mathijsen. They offloaded a good many players as well, but none of them brought in a red cent. They were positioning themselves behind Qatari oil money (for shame!) for a big run. They were closing the gap between the Big 2 and the have nots with giant strides.

And now, 18 matches in, they’re in 10th with a game in hand over several of their better-ranked rivals. They’re only a point from a Europa League spot, but that point could be hard to come by given the other teams involved. Athletic Bilbao has leapfrogged them and Sevilla looks more than capable of pushing towards Levante’s 4th place spot. Espanyol may be surprising a lot of onlookers, but they’re not half bad and they seem to have hit a vein of form. Levante could be weakening, but they’re hosting last place Zaragoza tomorrow, which should be 3 more points and could put them almost out of reach for Málaga unless the los boquerones can manage something against FCB.

That’s the point, though, isn’t it? Málaga was supposed to be challenging for something, not hoping to get the last seat at the European table. They put up a fight against Real Madrid, but couldn’t close the deal at 2-0 up in the first leg, eventually succumbing 4-2 on aggregate, but that about sums up their season. They haven’t won a league match since November 28 when they beat Villarreal 2-1. Since, they’ve drawn 2 and lost 3, including matches to Real Sociedad and Sporting Gijon. They’re playing like a mid-table club: 10th in goals scored (21) and 10th in goals allowed (24).

The silver lining is that they’re good at home (5W-2D-1L, 13GF 9GA) while Barça continues to have an up-and-down season on the road (3W-4D-1L, 12GF 9GA). That suggests a pretty good, even match is coming our way. They were called Maulaga for a reason the last couple of years, but now they’re trying to play a bit and they’re no longer playing Weligton enough to warrant a real BFB shoutout to the original Pepe. He’s basically a hipster. He was stomping on Messi before stomping on Messi was cool. So he’s a stompster. Okay, I’m going to do it: Boo Weligton!

Everyone scores for Málaga. Cazorla leads the way with 4 goals, but after that, there are 5 players with 2 goals apiece.

Barcelona are traveling with everyone save the injured Fontàs, Villa, and Afelley and Keita who is on ACN duty. Pedro was declared fit and included in the squad, so he’ll be traveling alongside everyone plus the B-teamers Cuenca, Sergi Roberto, and Jonathan dos Santos. I suspect Pedro will be reserved for a substitute role, but that he’ll make an appearance regardless of what the scoreline is. If we’re down or level, he’ll come on to beef up the attack. If we’re winning, he’ll come on to beef up the attack. It’s how things go around these parts. Though, did you realize Pedro only has 1 league goal this year? Well whether you did or not, he only has 1. Crazy!

With Real Madrid hosting Athletic Bilbao, it’s likely that any slip up on Barça’s part will result in an 8-point gap. That can’t be allowed, as Guardiola has noted. No more points can be dropped if the league is to be contested. What I love about that article is that Guardiola notes the danger Málaga presents. Pellegrini is no fool and he’s pushed Barcelona to the brink with a 96 point league haul when he was managing Real Madrid. That’s pretty much the hotness except Barça got 99 points. Crazy, right? Yup. But that’s how things have been going and it’s why Málaga is having such a hard time breaking into the big crowd. It’s quite the gap to bridge.

Play hard, play well, play correctly. Get 3 points. Make the world swoon. Whatever gets you motivated, do it. Get it going. That motor should be purring because if it’s not, there goes La Liga. And remember, it’s only the halfway stage. That’s how messed up this league is.

Predicted lineup: Valdes, Alves, Mascherano, Puyol, Abidal, Busquets, Xavi, Cesc, Messi, Alexis, Adriano

Official Prediction: 1-2. Bitter game, but we get the necessary points. It’s going to be tough. It’s going to be physical. And it’s going to be Alves and Cesc with the goals.

Adrenaline is an interesting thing. I like it to a certain extent. It’s gotten me off a mountain top with bad weather closing in. It’s kept me from crashing my car in icy conditions. And it’s probably cut a few years off my life thanks to its connection with El Clásico. All things are give and take, y’all. El Clásico takes your sanity, social abilities, and hairline, but it gives you more waistline, mass hysteria, and cardiac arrest. All things are give and take.

What you witness when you witness a match between the two great sides of Spain is far more than the 90 minutes of game time. Besides the obvious preparation by the team itself, there’s the reams of idiotic drivel “sportswriters” and “journalists” dish out at a stupendous rate, the Madrid-based statisticians pointing out the obvious nature of Madrid’s superiority and the one-upmanship from Catalunya saying “nuh-uh, poopypants, our statisticians butter their bread on the correct side”, and now even the psychologists claiming The Real Thongnaldo is allergic to Barça while Messi is the scourge of Madrid.

Basically, if this goes on for another 10-15 minutes, we’re going to see this splashed across all the newspapers in the world:

And you thought it was the Soviets that would pull the trigger. Turns out it’s me, incapable of writing another preview about Llourinho or Dive Maria.

But here we are, talking about both: among the list of casualties in white for this match is Angel di Maria, a man whose propensity for getting sudden injuries right as he’s totally owned by Eric Abidal are known worldwide (we chanted “broken ankles” at our bar for a solid minute, maybe more). Marca declared dM out of the contest 100% for sure definitely not playing. Moments later Mourinho declared him not quite fit, but in the squad and hopefully playing a pivotal role in the match. Being the glorious human being that I am, I hope he’s fit and capable of playing breaking his ankles yet again in front of Rey Abi. Remember, The French Greyhound doesn’t even need to be on his feet to be so cool Samuel L. Jackson takes lessons from him. O-freakin’-lé. [UPDATE: It's been brought to my attention that the above mentioned broken ankles were by Pique, not Abidal. Does that make Abidal less awesome? Nope. It makes me thank Shakira for teaching Gerard these sexy moves. Thanks to reader Srini for the info and link.]

Yet the larger point is that Mourinho is playing the game that we’ve all created for him to play. Can’t really blame him for “hiding his cards” as they’re saying: there’s so much pressure on this that if he falters, if Barça comes out the victors, it could wreck RM’s season. I say could, of course, because the Liga is by no means lost if they’re out of the Copa del Rey and the Champions League is just about to get going again. And yet it seems that the pressure is all on Madrid this time around. The burden of expectation and the fear of failure is rampant.

Cules can stand anywhere on earth and feel free to sing the hymn and then, kindly, with a pat on the shoulder of their beet-red madridista neighbor, point out that Barça can still win when they spot los merengues a goal. The peels of laughter that follow are the gorgeous bells of a cathedral for me and a dark dirge to those who have outspent, outspoken, and outfought the Catalans only to find themselves at the bottom looking up.

Naturally nothing is written in stone and the team has to play lights out to win. That’s the odd thing: against this Madrid team, they’re on point. They’re capable. They don’t go to sleep. It’s as if Mourinho keeping his mouth shut would maybe allow him to catch Barça napping, but the turgid waters are so mucky with reporters making up their own story lines that it’s basically impossible not to say something, even if you say nothing at all. Silence is no kind of “no comment”–and that’s not particularly fair, but Guardiola has mastered it: just answer the roundabout way, take the high road, feed them what they want and nothing more.

So, to the Madrid injury woes: Carvalho and Khedira are out (actually, 100% out) while Arbeloa is suspended. Pepe has been struggling with some fitness questions and di Maria appears “tocado” if still capable of playing. Mourinho had this to say about his options (English below):

Si juega Ramos de lateral, me van a criticar porque es mejor de central. Si juega Fabio de lateral derecho, me van a criticar porque es zurdo. Si juega Lass de lateral, me van a criticar porque está Khedira lesionado y dejo solo a Xabi. Si juega Pepe de central, me van a criticar porque tiene que jugar en el medio. Pero si le pongo en el medio, me dirán que es mejor de central. Si juego con trivote me van a criticar porque hay que ir a atacar. Si juego al ataque, me dirán que había que poblar el medio y me criticarán igual. Si juega Higuaín, me criticarán porque no juega Benzema. Y si juega Benzema, me van a criticar porque no juega Higuaín que marcó un gol en Mallorca. Mejor nos vamos al cine mañana y luego vemos el resultado y opinamos.

If Ramos plays on the wing, they’ll criticize me because he’s better in the middle. If Fabio [Coentrao] plays at RB, they’ll criticize me because he’s a leftie. If Lass plays on the wing, they’ll criticize me because Khedira is injured and I’m leaving Xabi alone in the middle. If Pepe plays at centerback, they’ll criticize me because he has to play in midfield. But if I put him in midfield, they’ll tel me he’s better at centerback. If I play a “trivote” they’ll criticize me because you have to go out and attack. If I gamble on offense, they’ll tell me I should have reinforced the midfield and they’ll criticize me equally. If Higuain plays, they’ll criticize me for not playing Benzema. And if Benzema plays, they’ll criticize me because Higuain didn’t play even though he scored against Mallorca. It’d be better if we just went to the movies tomorrow and later checked out the score and opined on it.

Sure, that’s all true, especially the part of about him not bothering to show up, but it’s said with an air of disgust that only further incites the already insane mob. And it heaps pressure on the players to make right by their manager’s decisions, even if they’re wrong or if Barça is simply better on the night. Until they beat Barça again (over these 2 legs or in a one-off match), Madrid will be in this vortex of crazy that they can’t seem to get out of or get enough of. Further, what about Callejon? Do you start him, Varane, or, as Marca somewhat absurdly suggested, 20-year old Castilla player Dani Carvajal. That would go over well, I’m sure.

Speaking of B-teamers, maybe, if things continue with the ante-raising, we’ll see another Sergi Roberto appearance. He’s in the squad, so it’s possible: Valdés, Pinto, Piqué, Fàbregas, Puyol, Xavi, Alexis, Messi, Thiago, Mascherano, Busquets, Adriano, Abidal, Iniesta, Dani Alves, Jonathan dos Santos, Sergi Roberto, Montoya, Cuenca.

And while there are serious injury problems on the front line (Villa, Ibi, Pedro), the starting lineup that won 1-3 the last time Barça went to the Bernabeu is completely available. None of the subs that were used (Keita, Villa, and Pedro), but at least the first 11 could play. Personally, that’s exactly what should happen, with the exception of the goalie:

Pinto, Alves, Pique, Puyol, Abidal, Busquets, Iniesta, Xavi, Cesc, Messi, Alexis.

That’s a solid lineup, no matter who is thrown at them, though the subs may leave a little to be desired in terms of versatility and experience. Thiago, Adriano, and Mascherano are the major names there, but beyond that are a series of little ones that, while talented and capable, are perhaps not up to the challenge of a full on clasico quite just yet. Cuenca, perhaps, but he was more worthless than I was on Sunday and I was pretty much just a hunk of alcohol-sodden flesh (except when I was in the bathroom for Alexis’ goal, in which case I was simply missing in action, but that was sort of Cuenca’s thing too).

So here we are. It’s time again. Do they play a trivote, do they hunker down for the 0-0 and go for the 1-1 away? Who cares, we play our game, we do our thing, and come what may, it’s el clásico time.

Official Prediction: 1-1. A tight affair to be decided at the lovely Camp Nou in a week. Goal by Messi because, well, he’s Messi.

Let’s make this a mature ending:

Guess who!

They were first for a bit, having won their first 4 matches. They were looking down from lofty heights and thinking about long-term results. They were living up to the hype from last year when they put in a magnificent second leg against Barça and won handily. They were segunda champions. And then: 1 point out of the next 30 and Real Betis fell all the way to 17th, just barely out of the relegation zone. Manager Pepe Mel was supposedly on the hot seat, the team was barely scoring, and the defense was losing its grip. The next match was against Valencia and they were assured of losing.

An own goal appeared to be extinguishing Betis’ season. Extra time came along and suddenly another and then: Ruben Castro scored, the crowd went wild. A point against Valencia at the death. And then: Ruben Castro scored again, a second goal in extra time and one that was worth 2 additional points and pandemonium in the stands. They’ve gone 3 matches without dropping a point. They’re in 10th and looking like the team from the first few weeks. They beat Atleti at the Calderon and Sporting Gijon at home.

So they’re heading to Barcelona now, to play a team that is probably looking to make a strong statement of intent before midweek clasicos. Betis brings along Casto, Fabricio, Juanma, Nacho, Jonathan Pereira, Iriney, Salva Sevilla, Isidoro, Ustaritz, Mario, Dorado, Sergio, Cañas, Jorge Molina, Rubén Castro, Santa Cruz, Matilla, Jefferson Montero.

They play a fairly open and attacking brand of football, which is fun, but hasn’t really paid off with a lot of goals. Only 19 so far this season with Ruben Castro getting 5 of them and Roque Santa Cruz 4. The defense has allowed just 22 goals, however, which is not particularly bad. Barcelona, however, are not your typical team and Betis aren’t particularly good against higher ranked teams.

Barça haven’t allowed a goal at home this year while they’ve scored 39 and are 8W-1D-0L compared to Betis’ 3W-0D-6L away from home. That suggests a pretty high likelihood of a home win, but crazier things have certainly happened. Seydou Keita is now missing for Barça thanks to African Cup of Nations duty. Pedro and Andreu Fontas are also injured, which means that, coupled with Ibi and Villa’s absences, only 15 1st teamers are available. B-teamers Cuenca, Montoya, Sergi Roberto, and Jonathan Dos Santos all trained with the first team and are likely to be included in the final squad list.

Predicted lineup: Valdes, Alves, Pique, Mascherano, Abidal, Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta, Cesc, Messi, Cuenca.

I have no particulary rationale behind that lineup other than it is 11 players and resting Puyol for the midweek game is perhaps something Guardiola will do. Otherwise, I have no idea because it depends on whether or not Abidal gets rested in favor of Adriano or not. We’ll have to see. Either way, Official Prediction: 3-0. No goals are allowed in the Camp Nou.

It’s extremely important to get this win as Madrid has already moved back up by 8 points thanks to their come-from-behind victory over Mallorca. No more points can be handed to them if the league is to be won. And winning the league is the point of the season. It’s not the Champions League and it’s not the Copa and it’s not the Club World Cup. It’s La Liga. And these matches are what matter in the long run. Every point is worth the same and now is when we prove our worthiness. So, now we have to do it. Doing it with a clean sheet just makes it seem better, more convincing.

Apologies for the short preview, but these Sunday games are extremely hard to find time for. We’ll have a review for you and then it’s Clasico Week again and I’ll be posting a couple of times before Pep’s Birthday Celebration in the Bernabeu.

Tis the season of triumphant returns to winning ways. Or, at least, for Barça, the moment when anything better than a 4-0 loss will automatically send them through to the next round of the Copa del Rey. Certainly Getafe pulled it off a few years ago with that 4-0 win at the Coliseum in the semifinals. The first leg had been 5-2 at the Camp Nou, though, and those away goals changed things pretty dramatically. A 5-1 loss would suit Barça just fine, as a matter of fact, though the loss would probably put some of the more frantic fans on suicide watch.

Whatever happens, though, it’s more about what’s looming than what is going on against Osasuna. 4-0 in the first leg probably means a few B-teamers in the mix, but the squad needs to be reminded that it’s going to take something superhuman to get the league title back, so perhaps playing all 1st teamers again to ensure passage to the next round to face Real Madrid (who won 0-1 at Malaga thanks to an absurd mistake by keeper Willy Caballero; though don’t blame it all on poor Willy since Malaga needed to win to advance and not scoring surprisingly didn’t achieve that). More clásicos? Count me in the “ugh, really?” category. I’m developing heart problems about this, people.

Can we agree on that? It’s too many. Make that your next tweet hastag: #toomany, though perhaps in all caps it will get the point across. #TOOMANY. So obviously we’ll have to eliminate them and make the Copa safe for the rest of the world.   The first leg could fall on Pep’s birthday too (Jan 18), which would mean that we would also have to win one for ye olde meese-tear. It’s just how it’s got to be, folks. And thus, we must eliminate Osasuna.

That means actually focusing on this match and not worrying about Ballons d’Ors or managerial awards (even if the latter are for Total Excellence and Badassery). It means scoring some goals and getting back to tiki-taka. It means not wondering if Espanyol has found the secret to defeating Barça (they haven’t; at best they’ve found the secret to drawing with FCB). It means maybe giving some kids some time and maybe not, depending. It means winning one for Tito. It means winning 800 million billion matches for Tito. It means reigniting that all-consuming desire for revenge against a team that hasn’t actually done you any wrong. It means then taking that passion and fire on to the next match and, as my high school biology teacher used to say, burning down their villages because I am the dragon and you have awoken my fury.

And no, I’m not kidding about him. He actually said stuff like that about people who got below like a 75 on his tests. Claimed he wore an amulet around his neck to keep him from turning into a dragon and, one presumes, burning all the villages there are to burn. He was also pretty much the best teacher I’ve ever had. So there’s that too.

That sort of passion is useful sometimes and now might be just that moment. Keep your head on your shoulders, of course, because you never know when you’ll end up outside of Coffeyville, Kansas with Matthew McConaughey on your tail. You’ll want to survive the witching hour to prey on more helpless saps throughout your long, distinguished career. Sure, it’s on the road, which is hard, but you’ve won there before and you’ll do it again (preferably tomorrow).

Osasuna is in a little bit of a dogfight for their Europa League spot (and within striking distance of the final CL spot too), which might distract them if they think they need to concentrated on their match against Racing. Oddly, though, they’ve got 3 consecutive home games coming up, which is probably a huge boost for them. They’re undefeated at home, after all, having won 5, drawn 3, and lost none in La Liga and draw once in the Copa. That might suggest that they concentrate on the league just to make sure they gain maximum points, especially with the second of those 3 home matches against Valencia and Atletico Madrid.

Whatever, Sport thinks we roll out with a decently serious side and their selection makes sense given that Alves and Iniesta (and the departing Maxwell) are missing. Alves “felt some discomfort” according to the official site, which is somewhat troubling, but they’re taking precautions, which is good. I’ll endorse their lineup: Pinto, Montoya, Pique, Fontas, Adriano, Mascherano, Xavi, Thiago, Ceunca, Messi, Pedro. Works for me on several levels, most of which involve resting key components of the team such as Puyol, Busi, and the not included Iniesta and Alves. Sergi Roberto was also included in the list and could make a start given that his inclusion wouldn’t put the team over the 4 B-teamers rule. So maybe he’ll play.

Osasuna comes at us with the following squad: Ricardo, Asier Riesgo, Marc Bertrán, Miguel Flaño, Lolo, Satrústegui, Postigo, Hermosa, Nekounam, Puñal, Calleja, Raúl García, Cejudo, Lamah, Roberto Torres, Raoul Loe, Lekic, Manu

There’s a lot of youth players involved in that, so I don’t know what lineup they’ll bring out. They’ve also included their medical report here, if you’re interested in such things. They drew 0-0 at Real Sociedad this weekend, so they’re still in 5th in the league, which I’m guessing suits them. I don’t know their true ambitions, actually, but I’m thinking they’re all about 5th place and a Europa League spot unless Levante falls off its pedestal and they can nab 4th, which would be totally rad. So, again, I think they’re giving this one up for lost and moving on with La Liga.

Offical Prediction: 1-1. Drab affair. Lots of fog. Messi scores and everyone poops their pants in wonder.

It’s easy to treat them like a little brother. They’re sort of poor and tiny and during college they once slept on our floor for a week before heading to the New Mexico desert to “find themselves” which we both knew meant take peyote and sit in a sweat lodge playing a didgeridoo. Yet they returned, again, a few years ago, sure of themselves and only a slight blip in 2009-10 nearly sent them back down to the hinterlands for more “spirit journeys” alongside our actual little brothers in La Masia. You see, Espanyol is just the neighbor’s kid we had to play with a lot because our parents were friends so we might as well get along with them enough to not spit in each other’s faces at the dinner table during those long conversations about “the state of things” or “that one kid’s parents are such screwups; my kids would never think they could do such things.” Adults are boring.

“Big brother” is having a good couple of weeks, having gone on a vacation to Japan that everyone seems to think was just the bee’s knees and having wrecked the bully from down the block’s perfect pair of white trousers while beating him in a foot race (at the end of which he fell into a mud puddle). Because of all that, Little Brother is probably thinking it’s high time to ruin the stupid party next door that has kept him up late at night the last few years.

They’ve ruined our party before, in much more dramatic fashion, and I’m sure they’re still reveling in it, but that wouldn’t diminish their joy at not only securing 3 points, but pushing the league trophy all the closer to Madrid’s grasping tentacles. Classic little brother syndrome (and this writer is one himself) merely needs someone other than Big Stupid Brother winning to feel vindicated. After all, when the budgets of the two are compared, there’s a gulf you couldn’t fill with palm tree islands or even the black liquidy stuff underneath them.

Still, as they say, form goes out the window in rivalries. Both teams, though, are playing decently enough over the last couple of league matches. Espanyol lost to Cordoba in the Copa del Rey first leg 2-1, a score that is by no means a disaster given the away goal (something that could be extremely crucial in the end), but which suggest weakness in Espanyol. Yet the match was 0-1 in Espanyol’s favor until the 80th minute, so it’s not as if Cordoba blew them out of the water.

They’re still Barcelona Light at best and even that has probably been taken over by the canteranos. They’re more like the Beast Ice to our Dogfish Immort Ale. I suppose if we’re talking real deal beer snobbery, I should say we’re the Inedit of this shindig and they’re the, uh, Glops. Perhaps they’re pretty good, but no one has ever heard of them, so whatever. And yeah, Glops is made in L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, which is right next door to Cornella de Llobregat.

Espanyol comes in on a 2 match winning streak and in 8th place in the table. They beat Atleti and Sporting Gijon, having previously lost to Osasuna and Valencia. Before that they drew twice, with Villarreal and Real Sociedad. All of that is to say that they haven’t done anything other than lose to anyone above them in the table, but they’ve lost only twice to other teams. So, basically, yeah, they seem screwed. At home they lost to Osasuna (1-2) and Real Madrid (0-4). Only 7 teams have a worse goal-scoring record. Only 6 teams have allowed fewer goals, though. That’s the perennial story of Espanyol. They’ve only failed to score four times, and also have 6 clean sheets (2 are 0-0 draws). The 4 others were 1-0 (or 0-1) wins. They’re top scorer with 5 is Sergio Garcia. Barcelona’s top scorer (no prizes for guessing who) has as many goals as Espanyol’s entire team (17). They’re just so predictably mediocre, yet also sitting near European spots. Nunca cambies, La Liga.

More importantly than any of that, though, is Iniesta’s return to the squad. He’s been cleared to play and took part in the open training session the other day. Good to see the little ghost magician back. Sure, we haven’t missed him in one sense, but you know we’ve all missed him and his Laudrupian croquetas. If you haven’t missed him, you’re banished from the land. Or at least relegated to the BFB nosebleeds.

With his return is coupled the full return of Alexis Sanchez, who, though he played against Osasuna in the Copa, is still at the tail-end of a recovery. Everyone except Afellay and Villa were available for the latest training session along with the ever-present Isaac Cuenca. That leaves a few good options for the match, especially since the Osasuna second leg is all but over already and it’s likely a couple of B team players will make the starting lineup for that one.

Predicted Lineup: Valdes, Alves, Pique, Puyol, Abidal, Busquets, Xavi, Cesc, Thiago, Messi, Pedro.

I think Alexis and Iniesta start on the bench (and what a bench!) alongside Cuenca, Fontas, Mascherano, and Pinto. Or however many spots there are available for league matches. I don’t know. 5? 7? No one could possibly know such inane details. What’s more, keeping Alexis and Don Andres on the bench provides a lot of versatility if things aren’t working out or straight replacements if they are and someone gets tired.

Official Prediction: 1-3, Barca comes out of this one unscathed, though perhaps with a few rough moments, especially early on when Espanyol pressures hard.

Don’t forget, you can follow the new me on Twitter, but I won’t be talking about Barca there very much (or perhaps ever, it’s unclear at the moment). I’m RockofThune and so far I’ve retweeted myself and talked about dolphin sex. So there’s that. And no, you’re not allowed to know why that is my handle. I’ll still be operating this site’s Twitter Mobile, but some of my political and random comments will go up on the other one. Barca news and opinions, live tweeting, and various other football-related stuff will go on under the BFB account. TweetDeck be praised!

Like Xavi, I believe Barca and football are synonymous and so when Barca comes back, football returns as well. Of course it’s ‘only’ the Copa, but that’s still a trophy up for grabs and had we won it last season, we’d have done the Sextuple again. Just look at the faces of our players after we lost the final and tell me it doesn’t matter [MD via @IBES16 on Twitter]

…Moving on, we face the Pandiani-less Osasuna at Camp Nou. [The tickets are only 9 Euros by the way. Well, the starting price anyway]. They are fierce, they are Basque, they are… fifth in the league?

Unbeaten at home, only three losses in the season [to, surprise surprise, Barca, Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao – all away from home] Jose Mendilibar’s Osasuna isn’t one to be taken lightly. It’s a well drilled team. Sure, they’ve conceded seven more goals [28] than they have scored [21] but one should take account the 8-0 annihilation we inflicted on them at the end of September and 7-1 demolition at the hands of The Evil Empire in November.

Since that game against the Whites, they’ve gone unbeaten, beating those Pericos away from home, a (sadly) woeful Villarreal and Real Betis at home, all by the same 2-1 scoreline, and draws with Rayo and Malaga.

Their results in the league so far: 16 games played, 6 wins, 7 draws, 3 losses.

As mentioned before, we’ve beaten them 8-0 the last time we met at home, but that was then and this is now. January has always been a difficult month and we’ll need to put them away as quick as possible because Pamplona is a terrible place to go, especially going there needing a win. Those fans are vicious, man. Osasuna are aware that this is a two legged tie and will most likely be playing to get a good result – ie. A draw, of course a win would be even better – so they take the game to us in front of their fans.

So we’ll have to be sharp. They don’t score much, but they concede very many either. And you can bet Miguel Flano will be looking to get knee deep in some Catalan booty, so to speak.

 Their dangerous players in my book:

- The centre back and captain Miguel Flano: see above.

- The Iranian Nekounam. He’s got a good eye for a pass, and can cause some problems if given enough space. Busi should stick to him like a real ugly, really tall fungus. He’s world-class at that. And I mean that in the most complementary way possible. Of course.

-Dejan Lekic may have only scored 2 goals since joining the Basque outfit in 2010, but at 6’4’’ he’s one big hombre. And that’s always bad. Because even though our team is full of skillful midgets from hell, we’re still midgets nonetheless. I fully expected him to be marked by Puyol anyway. That is, if he plays. That seems unlikely because of:

- Ibrahima. He’s young and tall. He’s also very skillful, given that he spent half his career in Argentina. Of course, the man’s also scored five goals in 12 appearances this season. And an assist. That’s a lot. Five more than half his teammates, actually. What a beast.

- Juan Francisco Martinez Modesto. (…I wasn’t sure what to call him). Anyway, he’s played the most minutes out of the Osasuna forward [1251 min out of a possible 1462]. That obviously means he’s scoring a bajillion goals a minute. And by that, I mean three.

Of course Pep understands the importance of this tie as well, saying in his presser today:

“[Osasuna] are a demanding side. They come at you. We have to play well and quick or the tie will be a difficult one.

“Mendilíbar is ambitious, and that’s why his daring team are fifth with 25 points. They’ll clearly be coming here looking to win the tie, and by doing that Osasuna will help us get back into competitive football … we are going to have to attack well and create lots of goalscoring chances”.

On the 8-0 massacre: “That was a long time ago, and a result like that will be added motivation for them. The situation has changed. This is a 180 minute match and we have to try to get a good result.”

In some great news, Iniesta’s coming back a bit earlier than expected. He trained for the first time Monday and completed all the exercises. According to the Pepster, he’s “fine” and can play for a little while, though “it’s a bit early for him to play the whole 90 minutes.”

That should mean he’s fit for Sunday’s game against the Pericos. Oh yes.

Leo Messi’s come back from Argentina in good condition. As to whether he’ll play tomorrow, Pep gives a sly smile and says he’ll decide tomorrow. Expect him to play some part. [UPDATE]: Or not. He’s been struck down with a flu, VV as well (not that he’d have played anyway).

Other than than the aforementioned duo, Villa and Ibi Afellay, we have a full squad. Including Tito.

Official Prediction: Goals, madness, Dani Alves having a crossing contest with Cuenca, a Xavi assist to an assist, Thiago getting stuck in, Cuenca beating defenders with his Adam’s apple, Pep pulling out what remains of his glorious hair when 4-0 up and comfortable. And a Leo Messi goal.

–

On the transfer front: Hleb is chilling out in Germany with a personal trainer sayeth Mundo Deportivo.

We should send him to Arsenal. I mean, they’re willing to take Henry back on a two month loan, why can’t they take Hleb for, uh, ever? We’ll even pay them to take him. In Masia players. And they love taking our youth players. We’ll give them Carmona. And Armando. With no Bojanesque buy backs.

I mean, just look at how happy this guy was to get Hleb. On loan.

Speaking of buy backs… I give you an excerpt of the Barca alphabet I’ll finish someday:

O is for Oriol

Got sold to English giants Chelsea,

To gain some first team minutes,

And it’s all working out quite nicely.

Oh, he’s a real jewel!

Passes better than seven Gareth Barrys,

And never loses a one on one duel!

Chelsea fans are enamoured

With the bald teenaged Spaniard.

As he gains a regular place,

Cules all sit and wait

For the inevitable Romeugate.

–

On Soriano’s potential promotion: we all know that once he’s promoted he can’t go back to the B-team. The thing is, as they are now, our reserve team is really struggling for goals. Soriano is one of the rare experienced twentysomethings in the team who isn’t completely useless. His leadership is invaluable.

That being said, his attitude is impeccable. He’s extremely grateful to the club, because just when he thought he’d have to find another job, the Club came and gave him a chance. The man would probably do anything we ask of him, even being sold anywhere if it’d give us a profit. Such an attitude should be rewarded and a last hurrah could be on the cards.

What Pep had to say: “Soriano is a possible replacement for Villa.

“But the downside is that if we promote him to first team, there’s no going back for him. He has shown that he can play in the first division, and he deserves a chance after all he’s done in the reserves, he has a lot of potential, he fits into the team well. We have three weeks to decide. We’ll see how this month goes, and how he adjusts to things.”

- You know who’s set to renew until 2013? Yeeep.

Stay forever please.