It’s a brilliant day to watch some football (between March Madness games, let’s go ‘Cuse and Vandy). The match squad looks a little like this: Valdés, Pinto, Alves, Piqué, Fàbregas, Puyol, Xavi, Iniesta, Alexis, Messi, Thiago, Mascherano, Keita, Sergio Busquets, Pedro, Adriano, Cuenca, Tello and Muniesa.

 

Starting XI: Valdés, Alves, Piqué, Mascherano, Adriano, Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta, Cesc, Pedro, Messi

Bench: Pinto, Puyol, Muniesa, Keita, Thiago, Sanchez, Tello

 

The match is at 2:00 PM EST 3:00 PM EST, so bring your green beer and keep me company.

For many of us, this is the iconic image of last season. Eric Abidal, fighting his way back to fitness after the devastating news that he had a cancerous tumour in his liver that required an operation. Puyol, our captain of the enormous heart, insisting that Abi be the one to lift the Champions League trophy. The team rallying behind one of their own and celebrating his triumphant recovery.

Sadly, the club has announced today that Abidal will have to have a liver transplant after all. Here is the official notice from the site:

During the next few weeks, the player will undergo a liver transplant as a result of the progress of his liver disease. A transplant was considered an option from the start of his treatment a year ago. At the express wishes of the player, the Club asks that the maximum respect for the player’s privacy be observed.

Source

I think I can speak for us all when I say that it is news like this that makes us all understand what the really important things in life are. Not football, for a start. Not referees, not conspiracies, not rivalries. It’s this:

All our thoughts are with this brave man and his family right now. I hope and believe he will get through this. He will have the best medical care available and the support of not only his family, friends and teammates, but that of the larger Blaugrana community. Anims Abi! We love you.

EDIT: Just wanted to add one more thing:

Life does not cease to be funny when it is serious any more than it ceases to be serious when it is funny. – Oscar Wilde

I’m not a doctor, but I’d like to play one on TV. So I got an expensive blowout, threw on a lab coat and hopped the Metro to Hospitalitat Generalitat, where I began walking up and down the corridors at a smart clip. “My own expertise suggests Borderline Personality Disorder,” I informed an X-ray technician. “Could we be looking at … alopecia?” I whispered to a cardiologist.

Continue Reading

 

Barcelona opened the current La Liga season in spectacular fashion defeating a then highly promising Villareal side 5-0. Utilizing a new formation and integrating new players, Barca produced football that was both remarkably fluid and effective. Even within the standards of the Guardiola-era Barcelona project, that match marked a noteworthy highlight of dynamic, attacking play.

Five months later, Barcelona was thwarted by a doggedly determined Villareal team, one that has itself been depleted by players lost to injury and sales since that first Liga match. Villareal deserves a great deal of praise for their disciplined, hard working performance, particularly given the recent context surrounding the club (the impending sale of Nilmar despite lack of depth at the striker position in particular the most recent difficulty). First and foremost, the story of this match was Villareal earning a favorable result.

Barcelona, however, was clearly far from their best and not remotely close to operating at the level they achieved in the 5-0 match against the Yellow Submarine that opened the season. The 0-0 draw now sees Barcelona fall seven points back in the Liga race.

The debate for why Barcelona dropped points in this match and their recurring problems away from home will be one that will be vigorously debated from now all the way until the beginning of next season. However, one of the features of this match that I found particularly striking was the continuity in the quality of performance between this match the mid-week match against Real Madrid. Interestingly, this week demonstrated a Barcelona side exhibiting certain negative characteristics both home and away. We’ll examine a few of the factors which may have come in play in this review.

 

Context: Injuries and Lineup

As has been the story for much of this season for Barcelona, injuries set the context for how they would need to structure their play. With the injuries to Iniesta and Sanchez in the mid-week Clasico Barca entered this match with only twelve outfield player.

Unfortunately, in the morning it became known that Pedro has picked up a hamstring injury in training Friday and would be unavailable. In an emergency measure, Barcelona re-evaluated the Sanchez and determined that he could play with pain killers and was activated as “fit” to play.

As such, Barcelona entered this match with eleven healthy first team outfield players. That is an extraordinary figure, particularly given the importance of this match. Guardiola filled out his bench with newly promoted Isaac Cuenca and B team players. However, because the team had such little margin for error in the Liga race, using young players in a match on the road was going to be difficult.

Over the course of the season we’ve become almost acclimated, perhaps numbed, to the team playing short. But in this match the team literally came close to having the bare minimum number of experienced outfield players. The most experienced fully healthy player on the bench was Thiago, a young player himself newly promoted at the start of this season.

What intensified this situation was the fact that Barca played a grueling mid-week match against their biggest rivals only three days prior, a match in which the team was already looking visibly fatigued.

 

Lineup

Given the lack of options, Guardiola’s initial line up almost wrote itself. He again elected to use the core group of players who were both healthiest and most experienced, a cohort which has been playing consistently every three days: Valdes/ Alves/ Puyol/ Pique/ Abidal/ Xavi/ Busquets/ Mascherano/Cesc Messi/ Adriano.

The only real surprise in the line up was Guardiola electing not to start Thiago. In the Madrid match, Barcelona looked fatigued in midfield, Fabregas in particular. Against Villareal, Guardiola elected to utilize that core midfield again, playing Fabregas, Xavi, and Busquets once more and adding Mascherano. Playing Busquets and Mascherano together rather than installing Thiago likely was motivated by playing away from home against a team that can be dangerous in possession.

 

The “Right” Tactics

The key to beating the Villareal system in terms of tactics is utilizing width. Villareal’s dynamic 4-4-2 requires the advanced midfielders, the interiores, to do double duty as wingers in a 4-4-2 when out of possession and as midfielders in a 4-2-2-2 when in possession. Attacking Villareal through width stretches the interiores and breaks the tight balance Villareal seeks to maintain. This is particularly true in transitions situations.

Guardiola utilized a 3-5-2/3-4-3 type of formation in this match with Alves and Adriano opening as modified wingers.

Tactically, this was the right formation in many regards. Adriano and Alves were both available as outlets for the ball. Adriano was the player who had the most time and space on the ball, often finding himself largely free on the pitch.

 

Unfortunately Tactics Alone Aren’t Enough

While the system Guardiola chose was fundamentally sound, his team lacked the dynamism needed to implement it successfully.

Again, as in the mid-week match against Madrid, Barcelona’s off the ball movement, ball circulation and pressing were severely lacking. At their best Barcelona play with a precision and crispness that are underpinned by dynami movement. It is that dynamic movement which allows a team with limited physicality to thrive and produce breath taking football. But when the movement is missing the Barcelona system breaks down.

Against Villareal this breakdown was best exemplified by the way the defense operated in the first half. Barcelona utilized a three man backline for most of the first half. While there is nothing “new” about using a three man backline and other teams do so now, the way Barcelona has implemented its three man backline is very innovative.

Rather than clustering the three center backs together towards the center of the pitch, Barca spread their lateral center backs wide and actively incorporate the entire backline into the possession game and “attack.” For example, in this match against Villareal, Puyol, the nominal R lateral CB, not only played close to the touchline but also got up field high almost as an attacking full back. Without these innovations, the three man backline can create significant inefficiencies.

There are of course trades offs in the way Barca structures its back three. Most important of these is the following. By spreading the lateral CBs so wide, large channels are opened up between the CB and the lateral defenders. The three backs aren’t able to defend as a tightly knit “wall” as other three man backlines do.

This large channels mean that the Barca three man backline can only provide solidity through energetic movement, pace and flawless positional reading of the game at the back. Even more importantly the backline can only remain intact if the entire team defends as a highly coordinated unit, pressuring the ball and winning it back.

Over and over in the first half, Barcelona lacked the dynamism to defend as it does when it is at its best. The advanced defenders didn’t pressure the ball aggressively enough. This left the back three exposed. This was made worse by a lack of sharpness at the back.

In turn Villareal was able to generate multiple dangerous chances in the first half that were stopped only by a very last minute intervention. Eric Abidal repeatedly made critical defensive plays to thwart dangerous attacks, often as the last defender.

If there was one play that captured the match in microcosm for me it was on in which Villareal attacked on a counter and Puyol had to close space to defend. Villareal’s attack stalled for a moment from a poor touch and Puyol had the opportunity to break up the attack. It wasn’t the easiest of chances but one he makes consistently. But in this game Puyol made a meal of the clearance and the Villareal regained its counter. It was only through a last minute intervention from a Abidal that a clear goal scoring chance was thwarted.

I bring this instance up not as a criticism of Puyol. To the contrary I bring it up for what it says about the state of the team as a whole. There’s no question about the Captain’s heart or his desire to to compete. There is no question that Puyol wanted to get to the ball and suffocate the developing danger. But he was simply a step slow in closing down the play – a step he usually has when he’s playing as we expect him to. Against Villareal, that step simply wasn’t there.

And again, this wasn’t only an issue of the backline or playing three at the back. Barcelona played three at the back against Villareal in their first encounter this season and dominated. When the team is right and playing at a high level, they are able to play three at the back and maintain solidity, as was well demonstrated by the first Clasico of this season at the Bernabeu.

In this second match against Villreal, however, the team’s advanced pressure defense was slow as well and not nearly as dynamic as it should be. The net result of this was that the backline had to absorb more responsibility then they usually need to. In this regard many of the problems at the back were more symptoms than cause.

Guardiola adjusted for these difficulties by converting from three at the back to four at the back in the second half. This decreased the space between the channels in the backline. The extra defender provided more cover and Barca defended much more solidly in the second half. Interestingly, when Guardiola elected to sub on Sanchez to augment the attack he removed Pique from the match and moved Mascherano to CB alongside Puyol.

Playing three at the back has been a controversial and much focused on tactic from Guardiola, one that is still in evolution. But on the whole what we’ve seen can be summarized as follows. Playing three at the back gives Barcelona tremendous flexibility and adds significant richness to how they can organize possession and orchestrate the attack. However, the formation entails certain risks as well. On the whole the team can afford to take those risks when it is playing at its best. Under those circumstances the team is able to maintain defensive solidity against the best of sides. However, if the team isn’t operating at its highest level, three at the back leaves open vulnerabilities . In a sense, the team operates with less margin for error and less robustness with three at the back.

 

Villareal Simplify their Gameplan and Defend Solidly

Villareal can struggle in transition situations because their formation has to switch between a 4-2-2-2 in possession to a 4-4-2 in defense. If the opposition can play the ball out widely with speed after dispossessing Villareal then the only defender the Yellow Submarine may have is the full back, who himself is required to push up field in attack (this is a reason why Villareal often seems to struggle with Real Madrid-transition defense along the flanks).

Against Barcelona, the Yellow Submarine enjoy less possession then they are accustomed to. That hurts their style of play, but one of the side effects to this is that is also reduces the number of transition situations they find themselves in.

In this last match, Villareal stayed more organized in a 4-4-2 block and playing on the counter. The interiores stayed wide to defend and pulled centrally in mostly to counter.

This meant that Barcelona’s attack was faced with the task of breaking down Villreal’s organized block. Maintaining shape generally isn’t a real strength of Villareal’s, but in this match they did it well and worked extremely hard. They stayed compact and clotted the middle while also making sure to track Dani Alves on the right flank.

 

Barcelona Doesn’t Respond Adequately

Barcelona simply lacked the rapid ball circulation and off the ball movement needed to break this shape. As in the Real Madrid match, the Barca attack operated at too low a tempo and was too static.

Watching this match the recurring words that kept coming to mind was, “faster, faster, faster.” But they were never able to play the ball with the velocity they usually do. The extra energy and sharpness were missing.

These problems were compounded by a lack of precision. Barcelona’s pass accuracy in this match was only 84%. For comparison, in the first match against Villareal this season the team’s pass accuracy was 91%.

 

The Left Flank a Lost Opportunity

When teams focus on defending Barcelona it’s nearly impossible for them to defend all of the players that need to be marked while also controlling space. Trade offs have to be made. In this match Villareal made sure to keep shape in the center while also tracking Alves and then Sanchez on the right.

This approach worked well as those areas were heavily defended. But in doing so Villareal had to concede space along the left flank. This is a strategy we see teams take recurrently against Barcelona, particularly in the wake of Villa’s injury.

And in many ways it makes sense. Abidal is a great defensive LB – but he’s not going to make too many aggressive forward runs. With Villa injured long term, Pedro lost form and Iniesta being more comfortable in the center than on the flank, it’s the left flank that makes the most sense to concede.

However, this means that it is imperative for Barcelona to create damage out of that area. The left flank players are often the only ones on the entire Barcelona team who have time and space on the ball. This match was no different.

Adriano was the Barcelona player with the most time and space on the ball in an advanced position. Barcelona’s best chance to create danger and score was through him. Adriano’s shown that he’s more than capable of doing this with his runs and crosses. Unfortunately, Adriano didn’t read the match well and isolated himself. He stationed himself high up the pitch. This is his tactical role. However, in this match, Barcelona was never able to fully exert control of midfield through its precision passing game. As such, Adriano isolated himself and the game was determined behind him. And by staying high up the pitch and wide, he was unable to support the quality of the possession game.

In addition, Barcelona fell into a pattern they will revert to when they aren’t playing well – they tried to force the ball through the middle via Messi (and Fabregas too often).

But it was that left flank where the goal needed to come from. And this became all the more apparent when Tello entered the match. Substituted on with roughly fifteen minutes to play, B team winger Cristian Tello had an immediate impact on the match. With his pace and explosiveness he was able to beat the Villareal RB at will. In the brief period of time he was in the match, he generated a number of strong scoring opportunities and was the most dangerous player on the pitch. Unfortunately, Barcelona couldn’t convert those opportuities into an end product.

The left flank was open all game long. If there was one thing I hoped Pep would have done sooner was make adjustments to how the team was going to utilize the space in that area as that was the region where Barcelona could have found oxygen.

 

A Handful of Opportunities that Weren’t Finished

In the end, Barcelona had three to four terrific goal scoring opportunities – one to Messi and two to Fabregas in particular stand out– none of which were converted.

Messi’s chip was indicative of the entire match. That’s a shot we’ve seen him make over and over. This wasn’t a case where he forced the chip and the keeper was in position to anticipate it or defend it. The keeper was perfectly set up for a chip. Messi just missed – but not by much. That play was just emblematic of the lack of cutting edge the team demonstrated all night long.

Fabregas’s miss at the end of the game was a golden opportunity for the team to salvage three points from a poor performance. But Fabregas scuffed his shot on what was close to an open goal and sailed the ball well over the cross bar. It was the culmination of what was Fabregas’s worse game in the colors.

It’s easy to lament and say that the game was lost because of poor finishing. However, most matches can be chalked up to a team “not taking its chances.” Football however isn’t a game characterized by efficiency in scoring. Even players considered to be great finishers don’t come close to scoring on the vast majority of their opportunities. The primary factor that drives scoring isn’t necessarily high precision scoring – it’s generating a large number of high quality chances. Eventually a few will go in.

This game wasn’t simply decided by the team not finishing a handful of high quality opportunities. It was decided by the fact that they generated so few strong opportunities to score in the first place. When you do that every miss seems cataclysmic. But when Barca is playing well – we wouldn’t necessarily have paid so much attention to those three to four great chances not being finished because others would have been created and they would have scored on some of them.

 

Evaluation

Team: A very disappointing performance in what was a match they couldn’t afford to drop points in. The squad was off in most phases the match: defending, possession, transition and attack. These are matches that happen to most sides during the season. But given the context of La Liga, it was an off match which the team couldn’t afford to have.

Guardiola: Set out to play with the team’s preferred system of aggressive attacking on a night where his players just didn’t have it. Pep’s preference is to stick with his players and let them save close games. He’s been through so much with them and they’ve produced so many remarkable moments this makes sense. But it also means that he tends to leave changes for late. And this was a match in which earlier changes were probably warranted given the team’s lack of tempo and rhythm.

Valdes: Was strong when called upon, making several excellent saves when needed, particularly one off of a shot from Senna.

Alves: An off day to say the least for Dani. He played high up the pitch for much of the first half but simply didn’t contribute a great deal in possession. His passing and touch were curiously off. Just a bad match.

Puyol: Showed great heart and determination. And he didn’t play poorly in any way. But he was just playing a step slower then he usually does. At the same time a great deal was asked of him in this match – especially the amount of space he was responsible for defending in the first half. At the end of the Madrid match Puyol looked like he’d completely emptied the tank. It was surprising to see him start again today. But once Barca converted to a back four and he moved to CB from RB, he was solid again. Not a bad match from the Captain – more one that was strange to see in some moments.

Pique: Not his worst match of the season. But not nearly his best. This continues a concerning trend in Pique’s play this season. What makes this particularly disappointing that at 24 it is Pique who really needs to be shouldering more and more of the burden of the backline from Puyol and Abidal. Instead, it too often continues to be those two older defenders who have to support Pique. In a match of this importance the team needed much more from Pique. He needs to turn things around.

Abidal: A draw was very disappointing. The team couldn’t afford to drop two points. But perhaps the primary reason the match was a draw rather than a loss was Abidal’s play in the first half. He shut down multiple dangerous counters covering for other defenders either being in poor position or getting beat. At his age it feels like he’s getting better. Man of the match for making sure Barca escaped with at least one point.

Mascherano: Defended well and his flexibility allowed Guardiola to make needed changes and convert to four at the back to stabilize the defense. Started the game in the holding midfield spot where he played deep – deeper than Busquets usually does (which may have been due to the dangerous counters Villareal was generating). Was fine in possession playing a relatively conservative game (completed 85% of his passes). Brilliant goal line clearance off of a Villareal set piece saved a goal and potentially a loss.

Busquets: An ambiguous match. Generally did the things he always does well at a quality level: maintain ball possession, act as an outlet, circulate the ball. However, he wasn’t playing as a pure holding midfielder today. The team could have used some attacking thrust from Busquets. At this point, the opposition defense almost assumes Busquets will do little of direct danger. Xavi needed more help to shoulder the load of the attack.

Xavi: A strained performance. Frankly, he looked taxed and fatigued. That he was subbed off with 15 minutes remaining in a 0-0 match spoke volumes to where Xavi was physically. We often talk about Dani Alves’s remarkable work rate and stamina. But in many matches it is Xavi who runs the most on the team. It’s difficult to notice because Xavi doesn’t go on direct vertical runs. Instead he’s the player who is in near constant motion. As the central midfielder he constantly has to run and find space within the interior of the pitch both to control possession and to make himself available for the other players to pass to. Right now he looks like a tired player – much as he did in the second half against Madrid. One of the slight disappointments of this season has been the fact that despite bringing in Fabregas and promoting Thiago, Xavi isn’t receiving any more rest than he has in the past. Midfield was the area where Barca actually went out and built a significant amount of depth. But it hasn’t lessened the burden on Xavi.

Fabregas: What’s to say? A brilliant player who had one of those matches. He was just outright terrible in this match. It wasn’t even the missed shots on goal. Fabregas played a slow, lethargic game. And in some respects it’s difficult to blame him – he likely shouldn’t even have been out on the pitch as he looked exhausted against Madrid. It’s easy to forget, but Fabregas has played relatively little football over the past three seasons because he’s been recurrently injured. Right now it looks like he may be hitting a physical wall as he’s been playing every three days in multiple competition for an extended period of time. His touch and passing were errant in this match. And usually Fabregas is exemplary in his work rate. That too was absent. He just looked exhausted. Completed only 78% of his passes. While that wasn’t the lowest on the team (Messi-77%; Adriano 78%) one expects much more than a 78% pass accuracy rate from a Barcelona midfielder.

Messi: Not his match. With the line up Guardiola had to go with, the key question that was very evident was where would the goals come from? Ultimately, there were only two goal scoring threats on the pitch. This made it easy for Villareal to overplay the center – that was the region both Messi and Fabregas like to play through. Messi is used to this – but he also was a step off and didn’t have the dynamism in his play needed to break down a defense structured to make any player other than Messi beat them.

Adriano: Played too tactically if that makes sense. Stayed wide on the flank and high, but in doing so isolated himself from the game. His teammates should have gotten him the ball more. But he also needed to read what was going on and become more aggressive in making himself available. Instead he played a somewhat passive match. This is a difficult position for a player like Adriano to be in. He was the player with the most time and space on the ball. The attack needed to flow through him if only to start opening up other parts of the pitch. He needed to involve himself more directly. Instead he waited for his midfielders to find him and direct the ball to him. It never really happened.

Sanchez: Gamely tried to play despite a sprained shoulder which was ruling him out of the match prior to Pedro’s injury. Had limited influence on the match overall. He played a brilliantly 1-2 to Messi at the end of the match in space so tight it almost wasn’t there that almost won the team the match.

Thiago: Surprised to not see him start – which again shows that while Guardiola believes as much in young players as almost anyone in the world – he believes they have to be given responsibilities in controlled situations where they are in a position to thrive. Thiago started the first match Barca played against Villareal this season and played extremely well. But on the road, in late January, Guardiola elected to go with more experienced players. When he did come on in this match did well, adding movement to midfield.

Tello: While on the pitch Tello was perhaps the most dynamic attacking presence Barcelona had. Using his pace and skill on the ball, the winger was able to beat the Villareal defense repeatedly. It became apparent quickly that Villareal backline simply couldn’t cope with Tello physically. He added an element of explosiveness that Barelona have in limited supply and that quality significantly expanded the nature of the Barcelona attack. His entry marked the first time when Barcelona really started to exploit the open space Villareal was conceding on the left flank. While Adriano also has strong pace the difference on the left flank when Tello came on was that he used the ball to run at the defenders and make them defend in open space.

 

The End:

A lackluster display sees Barcelona dropping two very costly points sending them further behind the top of the table. Barcelona have now dropped more points away from home than they did all of last season. That’s a remarkable statistics. However, perhaps what’s even more concerning, is the echoes between this match and the midweek match against Madrid at home. Both home and away Barcelona played at a much lower pace, less precision and less cutting edge then we are accustomed to seeing them play with.

Watching the Madrid match mid-week, what really concerned me wasn’t even the result – it was the relatively lethargic way Barcelona played. It reminded me of the match last year the team played against Arsenal in the first leg of the CL and matches in the second half of the season where the team struggled to play with the verve and energy they did when they were at their best. It’s easy to forget after winning La Liga and the Champions League Trophy, but this Barca struggled at times in the second half of last season. And it was only after the players got a full two week break after wrapping up La Liga early that they returned to playing at their top form in the CL finals. That rest rejuvenated them and had them back to playing the dynamic football that no other team in the world can play.

Prior to this match against Villareal I wrote the following on twitter:

Cules aren’t going to want to hear this. But we are going to have to temper expectations over the next several weeks.

The fact is the schedule is going to be brutal and the team is down to 12 first team outfield players. That’s just an enormous difficulty.

If team drops points or doesn’t win – it’s likely going to be influenced by fatigue (physical & mental) more than lack of hunger & effort

Now, I thought this would be a difficult match after the gruelling mid-week match with Madrid, but I expected Barcelona to win this match against Villareal. I had no definitive idea that the team would drop points so soon. But the fact is, the team is in a very precarious situation right now in terms of depth and the risk was there for them to not be able to respond physically given the schedule. It just so happened that.

We’ll discuss Barcelona inconsistent form in detail for a long time. At their best, this Barcelona team is as good as any we’ve seen during Guardiola’s tenure. They are just not maintaining those lofty standards with the same regularity. And our inclination will be to find “the reason” for why the team hasn’t been as even as they have been the past three seasons. But with most complex occurrences, there likely isn’t any one reason. Injury, squad depth, lack of hunger, etc. are all possible and may all contribute. Reasons why the team was inconsistent in the beginning of the season may no longer hold now or may have changed in significance.

So in trying to understand what’s happening and why it is, there are three directions we need to follow. First, to figure out what the range of reasons are. Second, to try to determine the influence each of the factors have. Proportionality is critical to this kind of analysis because not all factors are likely to contribute equally. Third, how are these issues changing over time? As with many things, the entire picture will only be clarified with time.

For right now, to me, the issues which are most definitive just due to their factual nature is the sheer number of injuries and the number of available players. I’m not saying that is the only reason – but as far as I can say with any confidence – those seem to be significant drivers. As we know this team has struggled in February for form under Guardiola. The mid-week match against Madrid made me think that February may be coming early this season. And the most direct reason for this is likely the mounting injuries on a squad that is small at baseline.

The team has looked exhausted this week. Fabregas was subbed off against Madrid with the match hanging in the balance. Puyol looked a step slow against Villareal. Xavi looked tired against Madrid and was subbed off against Villreal. When was the last time Xavi was removed from a critical match which was tied? Guardiola doing so is remarkable.

Hopefully, this current stage of fatigue is only that – a stage the players are passing through. A temporary issue that will resolve. The team has dipped in form in the winter before only to return to its highest level of play. Unfortunately, in the recent past Barcelona played from the top of the table. The team didn’t drop so many points, particularly away, so early. That gave them a cushion they don’t have now.

Adding depth will be a challenge. The club has shown little desire to add players from the outside and the transfer window is more or less closed. As such we’ll have to hope for a rapid return to health, avoidance of future injuries and surprise contributions from the B team players.

Another factor which we’ll need to face and consider is a difficult one to deal with because there’s no way to “fix” it:  random chance.  What this Barcelona project has accomplished under Guardiola has been breathtaking.  And it’s breathtaking because it is so far out of the ordinary.  Watching this squad week in and out – it’s easy to forget that this simply isn’t normal.  No team is supposed to accomplish these things – never mind to do it for so long.  And part of what makes it so difficult to excel for this long is that football is a game that his influenced significantly by random chance.  To operate at the kind of level that this Barca has and to do so for so long means that you can’t be only slightly or even moderately better than the competition – you have to be significantly better.  If not then just by random chance something would interrupt your success.  This season – with the injuries – has that feeling.

To put this in perspective – the team that Barcelona is perhaps most often compared to is Sacchi’s brilliant Milan teams.  How many Serie titles did that side win?  One.  That’s it.  One domestic title.  People don’t realize that because what lasts in the football memory of the world is a combination of accomplishment and how a side plays.  But that a team as brilliant as that Milan side were to only win one Serie A title speaks so how difficult a task winning is at this level.

Many are already saying that the league is lost. This is simply not true. Until the math says otherwise – there is still a league to play for. This team will continue to push to win everything it can.  That is its history.

This is not to say that dropping points doesn’t hurt. It does. It hurts a great deal. But that doesn’t mean the table is set in concrete. All we can we can say definitively is that dropping those two points against Villareal decreases the teams probability of winning the league, perhaps significantly so. But that’s all we can discuss right now – probabilities. What makes sports so wonderful is that they aren’t predetermined. And remarkable things can happen. Especially with a group of individuals as remarkable as this Barcelona team is.
Visca Barca!

 

 

Imagine if you could validly measure every dimension of football, every variable relevant to shaping the dynamics and outcomes of a match.  If so, you could build a model of the game and simulate matches in a computer with accuracy.

These kinds of computer simulators for football already exist in certain forms.  They are however very limited in utility and adoption because football is an extremely difficult sport to measure and quantify.  However, such simulations are commonplace in many different sectors of society, including other sports, such as American baseball.

So for a moment imagine that we could build this simulator and feed into it comprehensive, valid data.  This could be, in theory, all of the data from all matches each of the players on the teams of interest has played in his career.  You could then ask the simulator to predict what the results would be when the two teams play again.

When utilizing this simulator it would be meaningless to just run the simulation once, however.  Too many variables can change and too many different combinations are possible for one simulation to matter.  For example, a range of scores would be possible, some of them more likely to happen than others.  Just one trial would only give you a small slice of what was probable.

Instead what you do is to run the simulation many times. You would simulate the game at least 10,000 times.  Preferably you would simulate the game 100,000 times.  When you did that you wouldn’t get a single answer for what the score of the next match would be or which team would win.  Instead, you would get a distribution of possible scores for the next game.  You would get a distribution of probabilities for winning the next match and by how much.

Running this type of simulator 100,000 times you’d see a number of fascinating patterns emerge.  On the whole the best team would tend to win the majority of the time.  But the best team wouldn’t win all the time. At the extremes of the distributions, you’d see all sorts of strange scores and unlikely patterns of play.  Those strange games and scores would be low probability events – but they would still occur some of the time.  For example, in some of the matches you’d find that Xavi might complete 200 out of 200 passes.  In others Xavi might only complete 50 out of 100 passes.

And here we break from simulations and reenter life.  Ultimately, while you can simulate 100,000 games in a computer to see how the next game would unfold, what the scores of the next match would likely be and how often they would occur, in the real world you only play a match once.  The one game you play is only one instance of those 100,000 possible trials.  In a sense, this is what history is.  Our lives are the one trial that actually takes place out of all the ones that were possible.

And that’s the beauty of sports.  How games transpire, the nature of their play, the score, who wins – all of that is unknown and unwritten beforehand.  While we may be able to describe what’s probably going to happen – probability doesn’t tell you a great deal about any specific game in particular before its played. You can describe the overall distribution of possible games.  But you can’t locate where any one game is going to fall on that distribution. One of those unlikely games in the distribution may be the one that occurs next in the real world.  Getafe beating Barcelona 1-0 is a very low probability to occur if you simulate the game 100,000 times.  But in certain seasons in the real world, that’s exactly what you’ll get.

 

Here We Go Again

When you play a team over and over in a relatively short period of time you start moving away from single matches to a series of matches.  The nature of the competition changes.  Larger patterns start to emerge as the sample of matches grow.  At the same time, exceptions will also invariably pop up.  If you took the worst team in Europe and played them against the best team in Europe enough, eventually the worst team will obtain a result.  It’s just part of the distribution of possible outcomes.  Eventually it will happen if you play enough.  All sorts of things will happen if you play enough, in fact.

Given a 2 vs. 1 break, Fabregas and Messi will put the ball in the back of the net the overwhelming majority of chances.  But not every time.  Eventually an instance will occur when Fabregas will inexplicably pass the ball clumsily behind Messi to ruin the chance.  That too is part of the distribution of possible events in a match when you play a team over and over.

Barcelona and Madrid have now played ten Clasico matches over the past season and a half.  Barcelona has only lost once.  And that one match was a 1-0 defeat that was 0-0 at 90 minutes.  Barcelona have now not lost in the last seven Clasicos – that is a Barca club record.  And over this period of time, Barca have, overall, played football of tremendous quality.  It is difficult for a team to dominate any ten matches against another side to that degree.  It is truly extraordinary to do so when the other team is likely the second best team in the world.

In the face of that kind of substantive, prolonged success, the result of one match isn’t going to change that underlying dominance.  Success has to be earned on the pitch over a significant period of time. That means that Madrid have to show that they can beat Barcelona multiple times over a series of matches.

This was the mistake people made in interpreting the results of last years Copa Del Rey finals and this seasons Spanish Super Cup.  Those isolated results – those parts of the distribution of possible events – were over interpreted.  Rather than seeing them as possible events in a distribution of potential outcomes, they were interpreted through a narrative in which giving which Madrid had improves so much that they had “closed the gap” while Barcelona was purportedly taking a step back.

But those matches didn’t prove lasting.  They proved to be more the kinds of matches that will occur if two teams play enough.  No team – not even the best team in the world – can play at top form all of the time in every encounter.  There is going to be some kind of distribution of performance.

And for the most part, that’s likely what we saw in the second leg match of the Copa Del Rey quarter finals.  Overall, it was an extremely strange match, one that went through multiple phases and had little structure or coherence.

Madrid played an outstanding match.  Credit to them.  This was the best Clasico they’ve played under Mourinho. They played at the upper end of their distribution of best possible performances.  Indeed, this may have been the best match Madrid have played under Mourinho.  They forced much of the play, especially in the second half.

At the same time, Barcelona played towards the lower end of their distribution of possible performances.  Now much of this is due to the quality of competition Madrid provided.  But Barcelona’s odd performance went past the issue of the external competition alone.  There were significant internal issues.  For example, to open a match, when Dani Alves is making an extremely poor back passes under minimal pressure that Pique doesn’t bother to run for as it goes astray and the mishap provides Madrid with a clear shot on goal – that’s most directly related to an issue of Barcelona’s internal performance.

I’m going to focus first on those internal issues just to describe them briefly.  Please note, I’m not saying in any way that the match simply came down to Barcelona not playing well.  Madrid played an excellent match and pressed the initiative of play.  The point I’m trying to make is that the overall nature of the match and its odd form was the result of Madrid playing very well and Barca playing relatively poorly.  Both happened at the same time.  Both teams operated towards different ends of their distributions of possible performances.

 

Barca – Poor Dynamics:  Off the Ball Movement, Rapid Circulation and Pressing all Limited

Regardless of what formation Barcelona plays, the entire system is highly dependent on the players performing dynamically.  The keys to Barcelona being able to play their game are decisive off the ball movement, rapid ball circulation and high tempo pressing.  None of these qualities were present yesterday.

The lack of off the ball movement yesterday was perhaps the most telling and influential issue in the entire match.  Barcelona played an extremely static, lethargic match in which there simply wasn’t enough dynamism and tempo.

Barcelona had 66% possession in the first half.  But even on rewatching the match – it never felt like Barcelona controlled the ball to that degree.  That difference was due to a lack of coherence in possession.  Madrid did a wonderful job of pressing and doing so with great energy.  Barcelona however has faced many teams that press aggressively.

There’s a clear route to address this issue – dynamic off the ball movement to open space and recreate triangles in new areas as pressure develops.  The team has done this many times against different teams in the past – including against Madrid in the first Clasico played this season.

Barcelona simply didn’t do this at nearly the rate or with the effort they usually do it at, especially in midfield.  They were far more static than they usually are.  And off the ball movement is something that a team can control itself – it isn’t up to the opposition – it’s about workrate, energy and speed.

One of the major impacts this had was that Barcelona wasn’t able to build out play from the back.  While the defenders had poor to mediocre games with their passing, the midfielders didn’t move dynamically enough to provide outlets.

A moment that crystallized this for me was on when Puyol played the ball to Abidal on the left.  The backline was being pressed.  Abidal tries to send the ball back to Puyol and Puyol rushes his touch and is forced to kick the ball up field wildly. (It was remarkable how many times Barca broke with their system and tried to pay the ball long.)  The main problem in that situation was that Fabregas was simply standing in space watching the play.  Rather than running to the ball to provide a new triangle and outlet, Fabregas tried to stay in “open space.”  The problem was that the backline players couldn’t orchestrate build up to get players in open space the ball with consistency or quality (more on this later).  This isn’t an indictment of Fabregas, Puyol or Abidal.  It’s just an example.  Similar dynamics were in play with Xavi, Alves and Pique.

Without crisp off the ball movement, it’s difficult, if not impossible, to circulate the ball effectively.  At the same time, slow ball movement limits off the ball movement.  They are different parts to the same subsystem in the possession game.

What made this even worse was that Barcelona’s press also lacked dynamism.  A disproportionate amount of the defending was done by the back line.  And that was due to the fact that the more advanced players didn’t pressure the ball nearly as aggressively as they usually do.  Again – credit to Madrid as they moved the ball very quickly and used their pace to make the field large.  That said – there was something off with Barcelona on the night.  They played a relatively lethargic, static match in both phases.

 

Tactical Analysis

 

Barcelona Too Focused on Static Space

Ironically, part of this static play stemmed from how Barcelona set up tactically.  Madrid came out pressing high while also leaving their back line relatively deep.  They took a similar approach in the first Clasico of this season – only in that match the Madrid match was even more intense in the opening phase of the match.  As such, there was space available on the interior of Madrid’s defensive block.

What Xavi and Fabregas were doing was to station themselves inside of the open spaces in midfield behind Madrid’s forward waves of pressure.  A significant difference between this match and the Clasico in December at the Bernabeu was that Xavi and Fabregas didn’t drop back as deep or as frequently to help relieve pressure and build play.  Instead they prioritized finding space in midfield.

In some ways this made sense – if the back line and Busquets could get the ball forward Barcelona would find significant space and be able to attack rapidly behind the waves of advanced Madrid pressure.

The problem was that the passing of the backline was very poor all night long.  From that very first terrible pass Alves made – the defenders just didn’t circulate the ball well in the face of the very effective Madrid press.

What Barca needed to do was to drop the ball playing midfielders much more deeply and do so much more often to support build up in play.  This would have created more coherence in possession.  Instead, Barca prioritized keeping Xavi and Cesc in open space furhter up the pitch.

All of this was exacerbated by the loss of Iniesta.  In the last two Clasicos the left flank has been the one in which Barcelona was able to find the most time and space on the ball.  As such, the left flank served as an open outlet to relieve pressure as needed.  This is part of why Guardiola wanted to play Iniesta wide.

The same dynamics developed in this match.  Unfortunately, Iniesta getting hurt greatly altered how Barca could use the left flanks as an outlet to relieve pressure.  Pedro is still playing in very poor form.  And at baseline, retention of possession isn’t nearly as much part of his game as Iniesta’s.

 

Impatience

On the whole, Barcelona wound up getting caught up in a vicious cycle.  The prioritized having their central midfielders find space while the holding player and backline build up play.  When the ball did get to those midfielders they looked to attack the space in front of them.  Barcelona was extremely focused on trying to attack the space behind the Madrid defense.  Repeatedly they attempted to play the ball forward or long to Sanchez very quickly.

While this made sense from the standpoint of attacking space, one of the things that resulted was that Barca uncharacteristically played without enough patience.  In a sense, the team played too directly.  That is, the balance between direct and indirect play was thrown off.

This was damaging because it added a kind of openness to the game which clearly favored the tempo and style Madrid wanted to play through.  This is part of why Barca couldn’t control of tempo in the match like they usually do.

Part of this issue has to do with Cesc Fabregas.  Fabregas has been brilliant this season in the final third.  He’s thrived there.  But as a midfielder in deeper positions he’s had challenges playing the Barca possession game.  He often looks to play very direct passes.  At times that works well.  At other times though it leads to careless giveaways and even more importantly – slows ball circulation.  Cesc seems to be looking to pick out the most direct pass rather than the most fluid one touch pass and this slows down how fast he moves the ball.  He doesn’t “dwell” on the ball.  It’s just different from how Xavi, Iniesta, Busquets and Thiago circulate the ball.

In a game like this one, what Barcelona needed in midfield – especially to protect the two goal lead – they needed more composure in midfield rather than forcing direct play to take advantage of space behind the Madrid line.

 

Madrid Changes Systems and Barca Doesn’t Adjust

Much will be made of the results of this match.  We’ll again hear refrains of Madrid “closing the gap,” etc.  This isn’t what makes this match noteworthy, however, from the Madrid perspective.

What makes this match notable for Madrid is that this is perhaps the first time they’ve played a game in which their system is built around the talents of Mesut Oezil.

This is a major transition for Madrid.  Even more than C.Ronaldo, in this Clasico, Madrid’s system was structured around Oezil.

What I mean by this is that this is the first match in which Mourinho has been willing to realign his team in ways which prioritize maximizing Oezil’s strengths while minimizing/ hiding his weaknesses by providing him protection through the roles of other players.

In the past, C. Ronaldo and Xabi Alonso were the ones around whom the Madrid system was structured.  Oezil was required to adjust his game to accommodate their strengths and weaknesses.

C.Ronaldo has improved significant in his areas of prior weakness.  His defending and work rate – especially against Barca – are significantly better.  This allows Mourinho different freedoms with his system.

Xabi Alonso is often described as Madrid’s “metronome.”  While Alonso has been a fine player for a long time, it’s simply not true for him to be considered the primary orchestrator of the Madrid attack.  Madrid are at their best when play is being run through Oezil – not Alonso.  It’s Oezil who plays in the style and in the space that provide a fulcrum for their attacking play.  Alonso’s skill sets are more supportive.  In addition, Alonso has had a relatively poor season so far.

Indeed, while many of the tactical challenges Mourinho has faced at Madrid have related to defense, what to do with Oezil has been a fundamental issue that he’s needed to address.  Oezils’ role was always going to be a defining factor.  For sometime Mourinho’s put the issue off.  Madrid were dominant enough against most sides to do so.  However, the challenges of beating Barcelona and an inconsistent season to date from Oezil pushed the issue to the forefront headed into this Clasico.

In this match – rather than trying to make Oezil into another player he isn’t or trying to make him cover for the limitations of other players – Mourinho – accepted Oezil for the player he is and created a system around him which would cover for his weaknesses.

Oezil is a fascinating player.  He does certain things at a truly world class level.  His vision, final pass and intelligent movement in the advanced third are tremendous.  But while he has good touch he doesn’t have great touch.  His dribbling is fair.  In addition, shielding the ball and holding it to retain possession aren’t strengths.  He really is a 10 rather, one who is at his best in advanced positions, rather than a central midfielder.

The lifeblood of Oezils’s game is finding space.  He’s brilliant at finding the interstices of a defense.  However, he is limited in his ability to create space for himself.  He needs other player to create space for him to enter.  And Barcelona have exploited this weakness to press Oezil out of matches over and over.

In this match Mourinho did two things to radically change Oezils’s role and the Madrid system.  First, he had Oezil start wide and gave him a highly free role from that right flank position.  Second, he played Kaka alongside him centrally.  Kaka’s role was very interesting.  One of his main functions in this match was to draw pressure away from Oezil.  In the past, when Oezil has played centrally against Barca, he’s had to play against Busquets and the Barca holding player has completely neutralized Oezil by preventing him from finding space.

Moving to the flank in a free role alongside another creator transformed how Oezil can operate against Barca.  Facing a defender who has to retain shape, Oezil was able to utilize his intelligent movement to find space.  Abidal as a LB cannot track Oezil across the pitch.  This meant that Oezil was free to come off the flank and move across multiple zones without a defender necessarily marking him.  In a sense, he turned the Barca LB position into one that wasn’t consistently facing an opposition attacker.  This turned that LB position into a redundant position (this is somewhat analagous to what Messi does to CB when playing as a false 9- they often wind up guarding no one).

In addition, when directly facing Oezil, Abidal was somewhat uncertain on how to play a wide creator whose game is built around subtle movement and vision in passing.  He looked surprised to be facing Oezil for through much of the first half and the unpredictability of his movement heightened this.

Oezil moved in a horizontal band from the left flank to the right in that free role.  Essentially he went where he could find space, dragging defenders with him or settling in open areas of the pitch.  He was Madrid’s most dangerous player for most of the match.

Madrid’s first goal exemplified this.  Pinto sends a poor clearance long to Xabi Alonso.  Xavi goes to pressure him.   Busquets is marking Granero centrally.  Abidal and Puyol are double marking C.Ronaldo.  Oezil subtly moves off the right touchline staying advanced of Fabregas and Pedro but deep of Busquets.  He’s found open space in the advanced third which has been created for him by Alonso, Granero and C. Ronaldo.

Because the Barca pressure is late to come, Alonso sends a simple ball to an open Oezil.  Free in space he Oezil has ample opportunity to send a perfectly waited through ball between Abidal and Puyol for C. Ronaldo to run onto.  The movement is very small.  It seems simple.  But it’s decisive when coupled with his vision.

In prior Clasicos, Oezil rarely had that kind of space.  He was the player being pressed and marked, most often by Busquets.

Unfortunately, Barca didn’t make effective adjustments to this new role for Oezil.  The thing that was needed was an extra holding midfielder.  That would have neutralized Oezil’s ability to find space.  Barca could have done this in several ways.  They could have had Xavi or Fabregas play deeper more consistently alongside Busquets.  This would have allowed them to better mark Oezil as he moved across midfield. Alternatively they could have taken off an advanced midfielder and played Mascherano.  Finally, they could have changed to three at the back withdrawing Alves deeper, shifting Abidal to L CB and taking off an ineffective Pique for Mascherano.

Playing Oezil as the nominal right winger also had the effect of having Oezil defend Barcelona’s most conservative player in attack.  This was a major benefit as Oezil is a limited defender who has been badly exposed by Barca in the past.  In addition, Oezil has fatigued quickly.  Defending Abidal helped him mask both of these limitations as the LB rarely got forward.  An interesting approach Guardiola could have taken would have been to move Abidal to CB and put Adriano in at LB.  This would have given Barcelona another ball playing outlet on the left flank to try to make up for Iniesta and would have forced Oezil to defend much more than he did.

It will be interesting to see if this match marks a turning point for Madrid where Oezil becomes the focus for how they structure their system against Barca or its only a temporary change Mourinho makes.  He’s had hesitancy committing to Oezil fully this season so this is something that will require time to clarify.  For example, when Di Maria returns how will he use Oezil?  Would he consider using Di Maria centrally in order to allow Oezil to retain his free flank role?  These are the kinds of issues that I’m referring to when I talk about the Madrid system being “built” around Oezil.  It entails major changes like moving Di Maria from his strongest position to accommodate Oezil.

 

Madrid in a 4-4-2

In the second half, Mourinho essentially played a 4-4-2 with the substitutions of Granero and Callejon.  C.Ronaldo and Benzema served as the strikers and Oezil retained his free, wide creator role.  This is a formation RM have never utilized against Barca under Mourinho.

In theory, it should have allowed Barca to dominate possession and control the flow of the match.  Barca had significant numerical advantage in midfield vs a 4-4-2.  Potentially 4 vs. 2.  But because of the problems Barca had with their passing from the backline and the overall team dynamics, this advantage didn’t materialize.

 

Fatigue?

This was a match in which Barcelona played without needed energy despite it being a Clasico.  In some ways it reminded me of the second La Liga match the two teams played last season. Barca went ahead in that match only to see Madrid equalize.  Barca was going through a bad stretch then suffering from injuries to the backline.   It was clear the team was fatigued and looking to simply get through the match without losing.

Part of what we saw may have simply been due to the team losing concentration during the second leg of a tie they felt comfortable they would take, especially after going up 2-0.  However, this team looked fatigued – similar to how they looked in the second half of last season and I do wonder if that may have been a factor as well in this match.  With the extremely small squad and accumulation of injuries the players are putting in a lot of minutes.  Just something to watch out for.  It’s almost February, a month when the team has frequently struggled for form.

 

Messi in Space

Madrid’s pressure defending worked very well this match.  And many are saying this match and set up represent a major tactical victory for Mourinho.  And as I’ve recounted, the system he developed produced a number of positive effects, ones that Guardiola will need to design a response to.

However, there still remains a major tactical issue that Madrid have not addressed – there was still significant room on the interior of their defensive block.  In fact, Messi was frequently able to find significant space to work within – as the first Barcelona goal demonstrated.

The fundamental issue still remains.  When Madrid press high they do not stay very compact.  That means there is space open within their defensive block.

In the first Clasico Barcelona exploited that space very well.  Tonight their off the ball movement and circulation weren’t adequate to use the space they were afforded.  In addition, the midfield didn’t provide quality service to the front line, Messi in particular.  It seems unlikely that Barca will consistently make these same mistake.

Ultimately, Messi was able to find room.  How you feel about the way Madrid played tonight as a long term solution partly depends on whether you think it’s a viable strategy long term to allow Messi to have space to operate.  To date, Mourinho has not devised a system in which Madrid press high and also cut off the interior spaces in which Messi thrives.  This is not a minor issue.

 

Player Evaluations

Team:  Inconsistent performance.  A few moments of pure brilliance put them into the position to win.  But they squandered a lead at home and didn’t play well overall.  In the end they saw through the needed result and did so under great distress.  That’s a credit to their experience and mental toughness.

Guardiola:  Kept his first team line up from the prior two Clasicos, slightly altering his formation compared to last match.  Probably should have made additional changes to counter Oezil’s new role and Madrid’s switch to a 4-4-2.  That said, he had very few options to change the match with his small bench, especially with the injuries to Iniesta and Sanchez.  Ultimately, he shepherded his team to the next round of the CdR against their biggest rivals.  And that was his job.

Pinto:  His shot stopping was phenomenal at times.  In many ways, saved the draw with his critical stops.  His distribution, while better than prior years, still can be problematic.  And in this match he put the team in danger several times and generally didn’t promote possession, often playing inaccurate balls long.

Alves:  Wildly inconsistent match.  Overall Alves was off – his passing was especially problematic.  Scored an absolute wonder goal that will be remembered for years.  Not Dani’s best day by a long shot.  But he provided brilliance when it was needed.

Pique:  Very poor match.  Poor passing and lapses in concentration.  Pique’s form this season is concerning.  He’s not as consistent as he was in the past.  And that’s a major problem for Barca as he should be in the process of taking over the mantle at the back from Puyol at this time.

Puyol:  As usual, the heart of the defense.  Gave his all on the pitch.  Defended nonstop making one critical intervention after another.  His passing wasn’t particularly strong however and that made building play difficult.  Tired in the second half significantly.  That showed on both of Madrid’s goals – especially the second. Had to dig deep to get through the match but as usual he led the team to the result they needed.  52 matches without a loss I believe.

Abidal:  Played both a solid and somewhat confused match.  When required to directly defend was generally fine.  But he wasn’t exactly sure how to approach defending Oezil wide. Could have done better tracking C. Ronaldo’s run on the goal.  Next match against Oezil he’ll be much more ready and prepared.

Busquets:  He was often left as the primary midfielder to build play.  This was a situation where he couldn’t only circulate the ball short as he was often closest to the backline.  Played well.  Him not marking Oezil was a significant problem.

Xavi:  The team didn’t run its play through Xavi enough.  They became too direct and impatient rather than working it through him as a central control point.  Part of this had to do with the team often building play from the back on the left via Fabregas.

Fabregas:  Not a good match.  He didn’t spend as much time in the final third as he usually gets to due to Barca’s issues in possession.  His play in central midfield to support possession hasn’t been of the quality anticipated or needed.  Often he looks to play the most direct pass.  This has certain advantages.  But in deeper positions the benefits are often more limited and it leads him to play “slow.”  He keeps looking for that direct outlet rather than circulating rapidly.  It’s just something he’s going to need to keep working on.  As good as he’s been – he’s still integrating.

Iniesta:  Played a key tactical role as a wide outlet to relieve pressure.  Without him filling that role the team tried to play through the middle too much.  The loss of his possession skills proved to a crucial, especially in the second half.  His loss to another hamstring injury – for whatever time it will be – is a significant blow.  He’s fundamental.  And the team cannot drop any points if they hope to take La Liga.

Sanchez:  Made some nice runs that came close to producing scores.  Not quite as good as he’s been over the past two months or so.  This may in part have been do to him moving to a wider right position.  Given how Alves was playing – the advanced right position had limited support.  His loss is also very problematic.  The team simply is running out of forwards and Alexis has been growing into a critical goal scorer and all around force.  He will be missed.

Messi:  In a poor match for the team overall, Messi was the team’s best player.  Created the decisive first goal out of nothing.  Brilliant pass after a brilliant run.  Only player in the world that could have created that score.  Earned the free kick that set up the second goal.  Made numerous dangerous runs.  Worked hard defensively.  Man of the match.

Pedro:  Came on for Iniesta on the left wing.  Finished his chance off Messi’s brilliant pass very calmly which was very good to see.  We got a glimpse of Pedro the natural goal scorer again.  However, outside of that shot, he had very little influence on the match which was disappointing.  Given Madrid’s pressure this wasn’t a match Barca could afford to have a player function in a relatively anonymous role.

Thiago:  Very difficult match for a young player to come into given its intensity and pressure.  Overall he played well.  With the injuries to Iniesta and Alexis Thiago is going to need to step up and play an expanded role.

Mascherano:  Not on for long but did very well while playing.  Made a few strong interventions.  Bringing him in earlier was probably a move Pep should have made.

 

The End:

Two legged ties are really one match of 180 minutes divided into two parts and locations.  And while this second leg didn’t see Barca at its best – they didn’t need to be.  Over the 180 minutes of the tie there was no question who the better team was.  And that team was the one that progressed.

Madrid played an excellent match. But that’s not enough. And given the level these two teams occupy moral victories really don’t amount to much.  For the second straight season Mourinho has used extremely conservative tactics in the home leg of a two match tie and it has been a tactical failure, putting his team in poor position to advance.  Rather than learn from last season, he reverted to what he’s most comfortable with in that first leg.

Overall, much will likely be made from this portion of the tie.  We’ll likely hear another swing in pronouncements about Madrid “cutting the gap,” etc. Too much is made from each one of these Clasicos.  Prior to the first meeting of the season Madrid was seen as an overwhelming favorite.  Two matches later Madrid were seen as completely overmatched.  This was never true.  This was just an overreaction and swing in opinion that wasn’t warranted.

This latest individual match was not one where any kind of new, definitive conclusions can be drawn from.  It was an strange match in many ways, one that doesn’t provide any clear indication of a fundamental change between these two sides.  The second leg of a tie often turns out differently than anticipated.  It’s just a very different dynamic from a Liga match or the first leg of the tie.

The real story between these two teams isn’t being told any longer on a match by match basis.  The story is contained in the larger set of encounters that’s taken place over the past season and a half.  It’s that larger sample of matches that gives the most clear account of what these teams are.

Barcelona’s objective in this match was to make sure they advance.  It wasn’t simple – Madrid played very well and showed great strength.  But ultimately Barcelona overcame the challenges Madrid posed and achieved that objective.  And to continue to produce needed results against the world’s second best side even when you aren’t playing at your best is quite a testament to how good this team is.   Over a long season producing these kinds of results in difficult matches, in matches where you aren’t at your best, is what grows into overall success.

 

 

 

 

Those of you with a brain might find it hard to believe, but back when the author was a simple SoMiss, she was quite the social butterfly. Flitting hither and yon, she waited in vain for someone to ask her to dance to the slow part of “Melt With You” … but she is over that now, totally. Really.

[Perhaps you're looking for a preview. In that case, it'll be up in a few. You're welcome!]

It’s a good thing, too, because just the other day I was wandering by Bernaboo High, and there was Joey Mourinho — mobbed, as usual. I stood nearby, pretending to squint upward at a solar eclipse.

Continue Reading