CL Preview: Tuesday 2:45pmET (8:45 Central European Time), Fox Soccer

The final whistle blows and one team falls down, head in hands or head between knees. One set of fans clutches at their scarves as they wander away through what should be a drizzle at least, maybe a cleansing downpour. They go home and sit and stare off into space, wondering what could have been, maybe what should have been. In the morning the sun still somehow comes up and life resumes all around them. Such is the pain that a semifinal can cause.

Count yourself lucky, though, win or lose because there are plenty of other teams that would gladly trade positions with you. Would you rather reach the semifinal and lose or never reach the semifinal at all? Would you rather be an early 90s Buffalo Bills fan or a Cleveland Browns fan at any point in the history of the NFL? Would you rather be runner up in La Liga or relegated like Wolves? Would you rather watch Leo Messi week-in, week-out or demand Genoa’s shirts?

Whoever wins tomorrow—Chelsea or Barça—this has been another amazing season from Pep Guardiola’s team. A stunning fight in the league that could the see the winner requiring 94 points to win, a Champions League semifinal berth, and a date in the Copa del Rey final. And to think, the team could end up with 2 major trophies and the first back-to-back CL victory in the current format, could defeat a Europa League semifinalist (and maybe finalist) in the CDR final while their star player smashes scoring records left and right.

After all of that, here’s the thing: I think Barça will go through to the final. I realize the odds are stacked against the team: down in the scoreline with no away goal, injuries riddling the lineup, fatigue setting in after 813 matches in a 3-month span, and the team’s unshakeable fortress well and truly shaken. Yet there’s also the hope that if Chelsea can win 1-0 at home, why can’t Barça pull of a 2-0 or a 3-1? Why not? Putting several beyond Chelsea is no easy feat, but what is to say it’s impossible? Arsenal put 5 beyond them (and the final score, 5-3, would be fine by me). Aston Villa beat them 1-3 at Stamford Bridge. Liverpool beat them 0-2 at the Bridge in the Carling Cup. And yes, those are the only times this season that Chelsea has ended with a scoreline that would see them out of the Champions League (as best as I can tell, anyway), but then again, Barça has put a good enough scoreline beyond quite a few teams.

Valdes, Alves, Pique, Puyol, Adriano, Busquets, Xavi, Iniesta, Cesc, Messi, Alexis.

While I absolutely love Tello and Thiago, I do think their inclusion in the lineup against Madrid was an act of desperation forced upon Guardiola by injuries and circumstance. Then again, why not Cuenca? Why not make a move earlier to rectify what was going on? But I don’t mean to question Pep—I feel both like I’m not smart enough to understand it and incredibly annoyed that I think I understand what he did wrong. Tello wasn’t ready, was too frisky to put out there when calmness and control were necessary. Thiago was simply put in an untenable position: dominate the midfield, make runs, fight fires, break them down, etc.

But how do you not include the immense Mascherano in the lineup? Can Puyol play LB effectively enough? Is Pique ready to step back on the field and prove—once again—why he’s world class? Thiago, Pedro, Cuenca, they all deserve a look here, for width, for pace, for understanding  of the system. But who do you sacrifice? I’m not the biggest Cesc fan, but it seemed on Saturday that there was a lack of verticality, that the team was setting up chances and then failing to do anything about them because no one made the run. It’s not that verticality is good, but rather that if the team sets up a vertical game plan, maybe there should be someone there to collect the pass or at least open up some midfield space?

And, of course: put away your chances. If you don’t put away your chances, you lose. Simple. It’s the story of the last 2 matches, really, and it can’t go on if the season is to continue. Simple. Messi needs to wake up, but he needs support too, he needs space and players not barfing their chances into the upper deck (Cesc, Xavi, Alexis, and Busi).

I think we do it. I think we crush. I think we play like Barça can play. Official Prediction: 3-1. Goals by Messi (2) and Alexis. Play to win. Win to keep playing.

I believe. Do you?

The great day is upon us. Much has been made about this one simply because it is the title decider. Much should be made of it. Draw or lose and Barça has lost its shot at the league title. Win and there’s a fighting chance to take a 10 point deficit and drown it in the jubilation of a trophy. Guardiola knows this and Mourinho absolutely knows this. Both are consummate winners, both can see exactly how this could pan out.

The players will be ready in a few hours time, walking out onto the field to the blaring himno and the screams of thousands of adoring and simultaneously hateful fans. This is morbo, this is where Pepe jokes and men on their knees before altars to Messi come to rest at the end of a weary season. This is el clásico and this is why we play the game.

It might be a tremendously foul-tempered match or it might be a breathtaking reminder of why we’re all so in love with this sport. It might be foul after foul or it might be zig after mazy zag through defender’s legs. It’s likely to be both. It’s likely to thrill us and make us tear our hair out. We’ll scream and high five friends and strangers, we’ll curse the mother’s of men we’ve never met, and we’ll take to the streets of the internet win or lose to vent our delirious joy or uncompromising rage. This is where we are fans without perspective, following the cult of football of the cliff into oblivion. And doing so willingly.

El Clásico.

Say it out loud. Let the words remind you that there is meaning here even if it’s short-lived, even if it’s just soccer, you weirdo. It’s just 22 men playing on a field, for chrissake. Perhaps they’re even doing it in a foreign country, maybe speaking a language you do not. It’s just a spherical, inflated pig’s bladder being kicked by overgrown children. It’s just thousands of mindless people screeching at each other. It’s just a game being played out in front of millions. It’s just heart stopping action for 90 minutes, plus travel time and pre-match drinks. It’s just el clásico.

El Clásico.

Wonderful.

Official Prediction: 2-1, goals by Messi and Xavi.

Just over two months ago, I received a copy of El Clásico, More Than a Game in the mail direct from the producers. Very kind people, they are, and I agreed to review it for them because, well, it’s hard to keep me from watching something about El Clásico anyway and I happen to run some sort of blog or something and I need to fill the dead airwaves (webwaves?). And so now, in mid April, I’m getting to this just as the actual Clásico circus comes to town.

Directed by Matt Robertson, Sam Johnson, Zachary Fernandez, and Taylor Shwartz, El Clásico is the story of Barcelona vs Real Madrid. In short, it tells the history of the two clubs against each other and what makes the rivalry such a complex and intense bit of business. The long form of that is, of course, exactly why it takes a documentary to scratch the surface of such a deep historical, cultural, and personal rivalry.

For starters, this movie isn’t really for those of you (us?) who know the story, have read the story, and live the story every day. It’s not for those of you who have studied the differences between the regions and make it something of a personal goal to understand what goes into making this game exactly what it is. Only that’s sort of the part that this film gets exactly right: there isn’t something that this game exactly is. It isn’t definable with any sort of dictionary definition. Yes, “el clásico is Barcelona vs Real Madrid” but it is also so much more than that.

The film interviews a variety of figures, mostly professors and sociologically knowledgeable people for the first half, and then a combination of sporting directors (Zubi and Butragueño) alongside journalists (Phil Ball, Santi Segurola, and Sid Lowe to name just 3) to try and get at the essence of what this thing means. It’s a rampaging bull in a china shop, it’s a delicate orchid in a flower show, it’s a nationalist vs separatist showpiece for the world community, etc, etc until we all faint.

Part of me looks at this documentary and says “yawn” because, well, you live it or you don’t and it’s impossible to boil what I feel about this down to an hour’s worth of footage. Right? Or, well, not quite. The first half is a history lesson about how Catalunya came to be what it is and how Madrid ended up in its position as FIFA’s “best club of the 20th century.” While it isn’t totally correct in some of its assertions, in the sense that there is more nuance to it than what is stated, it’s not wrong and, for god’s sake, it’s just an hour and if you didn’t know any of this stuff you’d probably be blown away.

It’s a well-made movie. There’s no doubt that the group that made this (and it seems extensive from the credits and the fact that there were 4 (!) directions) knew what it was doing. It was making a movie with the brightest minds (minus Guardiola and Cruyff) in the game, had access to press conferences and footage, and kind of likes Barça more than Madrid. Perhaps I say that as someone who is biased toward FCB, but I did think it was a bit uneven in its handling of Madrid’s illustrious history. It makes the very valid point that the club wasn’t Franco’s team (at least not from the beginning–and probably not in the end either), but it focuses more on the idea of Barça being a fancy and fun team to watch than on Madrid being, well, a goddamned good team.

The movie was released in 2011 (on a memorable date known internationally Isaiah’s Wonderful Birthday) and has footage of the manita and the 2-0 at the Bernabeu from the previous season. There’s Ramos shoving Puyol in the face, etc and a lot of talk about Madrid being afraid that Barça is eclipsing them.

Where the movie gets truly interesting is in its assertions that Madrid is the team that embodies what it means to be Spain in the moment. It has no real identity in that it has an ever-shifting identity, whereas Barça have a Catalan identity that also plays out as a universal concept of solidarity, community, and independence from a centralized power.

All-in-all, I’m really glad I watched it and it made me shake my fist in happiness when Barça scored and frown with indignation when Madrid put one in the net as well as think about, really, what the hell am I doing sitting up late thinking about these things as an American whose ancestral lands are nowhere near the Iberian peninsula. Then again, isn’t that the whole point?

Buy a copy here: www.elclasico.org. Do it for the love of documentaries that are about football. The movie was made by California State University, Chico students over about 2 weeks. I wish I could have met the jerks they met. I would have high-fived Sid Lowe, hugged Phil Ball, and I don’t know to Santi Segurola.

It may be an abbreviated version of it thanks to the Champions League semifinal, but it is still EL CLASICO WEEK, an insane combination of high-volume, low-thought, short-fused absurdity. Mourinho accusing Guardiola of having won 2 tainted Champions Leagues, never mind Porto or Inter’s own debt to refereeing decisions of course, Pepe sharpening his studs, Messi playing video games, Alexis maybe getting injured, and everyone and their mother cursing up a storm about tactical formations, the end of the world, and (in my special case) whether the bar will run out of beer before the game even starts.

This is the league. This is the whole season.

If we lose (or draw) here, it’s over. A win is the only thing of value in the quest for a 4th consecutive title. The team has to put the defeat to Chelsea behind them and focus squarely on the titanic match waiting on Saturday. It’s not about the pathetic whining of someone who was passed over for a job with FCB because he made the board uncomfortable with his totalitarian style; it’s not about whether the last time the two teams met a ref blew the whistle at the wrong time; it’s not about cycles or self-styled best teams in the world. It’s about Barça-Madrid. It is about El Clasico. It is about 98,000 screaming fans in the Camp Nou.

All of that, though, all the tension, all the drama, all the bickering and whining, can be summed up in this:

Manita, baby! For Eric, for Catalunya, for children everywhere!

Bring it.

[I wrote a preview of sorts here, that you can read when you're done with this little bit of fun/nonsense.]

Scene: Overcast London in the rain. The team is wandering around the sights.

Pep Guardiola: I’m not sure this makes sense. How can it really be overcast if it’s also raining?

Tito Vilanova: We’ll have to possess the ball more to understand it.

Pep: It is the only way.

Isaac Cuenca: Boy, hurr, this town is the bee’s knees, chaps!

Xavi: Please be quiet, you’re making us all look bad.

Cuenca: I sure am sorry, Mr. Xavi, it’s just that I’m quite pipped to maybe be playing in Stamford Bridge.

Lionel Messi: What’s that?

Cuenca: Pipped means to be all rambunctious in the gourd…chap!

Xavi: No, I’m pretty sure it doesn’t.

Messi: I meant the other part.

Cuenca: Stamford Bridge?

Messi: Yeah. Is that where the queen lives?

Cuenca: Uh, no, I—it’s where we’re playing tomorrow?

Messi: Oh. Never heard of it.

Cuenca: But you’ve played there before.

Messi: Doubt it. Don’t recall it. Strumford Widget, you called it?

Sergio Busquets: Strumford Widget! Hey everyone, Messi just called it Strumford Widget!

Cuenca: Stamford Bridge. You’ve played there 3 times. It’s where Iniesta scored the goal in 2009 to get the team to the final. Asier del Horno up-ended you there and Mourinho called you a diver.

Messi: I just texted my mom, she says she’s never heard of it either.

Cuenca: I’m simply bemuddlefudded, chaps. Mr. Xavi, what’s going on?

Xavi: He hasn’t scored there, so he can’t remember it.

Cuenca: Oh.

Messi: Are we talking about Wembley? That’s in London. Wembley is a nice place. It’s got this goal on one end that I remember well. It was all thwap and stuff. That was nice. Good game.

Pep: Okay, gang, listen up! We have a big game tomorrow, so tonight we’re going to get to sleep early. Isaac, you can stay with Leo and Andres while they watch the Muppets instead of the grownup movie everyone else is going to watch.

Cuenca: Yay!

Puyol: What’s the movie you’ve chosen for the rest of us? I hope it’s the Queca documentary March of the Sheep.

Pedro: No! Let’s watch Goodfellas with Al Pacino, that is my favorite movie.

Wahin Makinaciones: Whoa, that is just plain wrong, little homey. Also, yo, take this awesomesauce sticker.

Javier Mascherano: Mister, might I recommend El Amor y el Espanto?

Pedro: What about Evita? Do you like that, too?

Mascherano: I will punch in the throat. While you sleep.

Wahin Makinaciones: Man, you are just all over the map wack, today, P! Take these swag sunglasses.

Dani Alves: There are some topical movies we could watch.

Pique: The Jerky Boys?

Cesc: Wenger used to make us watch Jean Cocteau films. They were decent, I guess.

Busquets: Let’s watch a movie about Strumford Widget! Haaaaaa.

Tito: I really identify with the seagulls in Finding Nemo. Only about soccer balls and not fish.

Pep: Sigh, all right, we’re going to watch Valdes doing more impressions of you guys.

Abidal: Hey guys, can I come?

Everyone: Abiiiiii!!!!!

Valdes: LOL, that was just me doing an impersonation.

Mascherano: Definitely going to punch you in the throat.

Pep: Great, I’ll see you in the viewing room at 8. Anyone else have anything to say?

Puyol: I ride unicorns!

Wahin Makinaciones: Get it, son!

Tito: More possession!

Pep: I’m leaving.

Pedro: Oh, maybe we should watch Mary Poppins, that takes place in England. And it’s a documentary like Xavi likes!

CL Preview: Chelsea – Barcelona, Wednesday 2:45pmET

Chelsea. That name can conjure up quite a series of feelings for just about any cule whose fandom predates 2010. The last time the two teams met, Iniesta rescued the dreams of a triplete from the brink. Before that it was 2006-07 in the group stage, 2005-06 in the knockouts when Barça went through 3-2 on aggregate and 2004-05 when Chelsea went through 5-4 on aggregate. Some of the grayer beards out there may remember 1999-2000 when Barça needed extra time to win 6-4.

There has certainly been joy and heartbreak for both sides in this rivalry, with some fairly breathtaking goals taking place (Ronalinho’s wonder toe poke in 2005 and Essien’s outrageous volley in 2009, for just two examples) but sometimes the ugly side of the game broke through that.

In 2009 Tom Henning Øvrebø was beset by death threats from Chelsea fans after a controversial game at Stamford Bridge, but before that, before Øvrebø was the greatest scapegoat in town, Ander Frisk was pushed into early retirement by Chelsea fans reacting to Jose Mourinho’s goading after a controversial first leg at Camp Nou saw Barça holding a 2-1 advantage and Didier Drogba sitting in the stands with a red card. Then too the ref was sent a slew of death threats. The second leg was no stranger to controversy either, as the 4th goal in Chelsea’s 4-2 victory, the goal that sent them through, could have been called back for an obviously foul on Valdes by Carvalho (full highlights of the game here), but while Pierluigi Collina never mentioned any death threats (I can’t be sure none were sent, of course), the truth was obvious: had Barça merely put away their chances, they would have won with or without that late foul. The same is true of Chelsea in 2009. They played against 10 by dropping deep and allowing easy possession. In the end it killed them.

Hopefully these matches will go more smoothly than those previous ones, but there is little doubt that it will be an anxious semifinal. Frank Lampard may be claiming that Barça is the favorite (and it would be hard to argue otherwise), but going in believing it will be easy is not something that Guardiola will allow. Iniesta has re-iterated the previously stated position of Javier Mascherano and Pep himself that the tie is going to cost quite a bit of energy and probably produce a few more gray hairs for everyone.

With Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard scoring goals like it’s 2005, Roberto Di Matteo seems to have found a way to rejuvenate a squad that, despite reaching the quarterfinals of the Champions League under Andres Villas-Boas, was succumbing to the weight of its own veterans. Michael Cox of Zonal Marking has a Guardian column about Ramires’ addition to the Chelsea midfield. Perhaps the most telling line is this: “Ramires is Chelsea’s most frequent tackler and also their most frequent dribbler – a unique role for a Premier League player.” And it’s one that Barça will not only be aware of, but wary of too. His lightning quick attacks are capable of dealing a fatal blow to any Champions League aspirations; he has scored just 11 times himself (though 9 of them have been this season), but he destabilizes defenses rather well and has shown an aptitude for getting a boot in at the right time. His poke on to Fernando Torres against Benfica in the first leg of the quarter finals led to Torres’ cross for Kalou to tap in what turned out to be a tie-deciding goal.

All of that, though, ignores the Chelsea player who might just be better than all the others: Juan Mata. He was purchased from Valencia this last summer for some €28m and has made a massive impact in England—despite there having been some rainy days at Stoke, no doubt. He’s scored 6 league goals and 13 overall this season, a solid number given his 18 assists (according to Wikipedia). Only Frank Lampard, with 16, has more for Chelsea.

Their defense is somewhat stricken of late, with David Luiz picking up a hamstring injury and Gary Cahill a foot injury in their 5-1 FA Cup semifinal win over Tottenham. Luiz looks like he’ll miss out on at least the first leg while Cahill is likely to play despite any lingering side effects he may have. Bosingwa or Ivanovic might have to step in and play pivotal roles at CB if he can’t go—there’s also Paulo Ferreira, who until the Benfica match I thought had retired (he’s played in 6 matches this year), but it seems unlikely that he’ll take part.

On Sunday they started Cech, Cole, Terry, David Luiz, Bosingwa, Lampard, Mikel, Ramires, Kalou, Mata, and Drogba. Tottenham ended up with 51% of the possession against what ZM calls a 4-2-3-1 that employs the same tactic Madrid has been employing against Barça for a while: 2 deep-lying holders hoping to cut off the center. Width will be at a premium, meaning players such as Cuenca and Alexis will have to move quickly into space as well as deftly take on their rather good defensive opponents. Levante offered up a similar scheme, but with worse players and they were not particularly ineffective against Barça’s attack, which ended up looking sluggish until the second half when Cuenca replaced Xavi.

In the end, if Chelsea allow Barça time and space on the ball, you can be fairly confident Barça will prevail. That scenario, where Chelsea back off too much and let the wide players begin to dictate the pace of the game, is unlikely. Bosingwa and Cole are far better than the average pair of wing backs and they could seriously hinder any width-creation simply by being capable of challenging without fouling or giving up position. That would leave Barça’s central attackers—all 3,328 of the little midgets—wanting for service and dropping ever-deeper for possession. It’ll be a tough battle for Chelsea as Barça will never stop looking for crucial away goals, but Barça’s defense will also have to be on high alert throughout the match for loose giveaways.

Dani Alves will be hoping that Chelsea play scared, once again.