Kevin has written a review of the Athletic match which, if you haven’t read it, should be your first stop. Besides joy at watching Banjo Crickets get his two goals and our team continuing to look like a brilliant machine of goal-making beauty, there was the obvious “Oh shit” of hearing that both Ibra and Pique could be out for the clásico next Saturday. I’ll cover much more of that in tomorrow’s Arsenal second leg preview, but suffice to say that I’m arching eyebrows in concern.
I’m here, though, not to discuss negative outlooks on the coming matches, but rather to give some updates about various topics. Check ’em out after the jump.
I had a good week in Yahoo! Fantasy, I think, with David Villa netting two late goals to shoot me up the rankings to 11th. Mwahaha, eat it, ByeByeHleb! Mes Que Un Club jumped to the top with a solid week and it really does look like a two horse race between MQUC and FC Bojmir, who have almost a 200 point lead over 3rd place and more than 300 on me. Bah humbug.
The Table Position League is updated after 3 weeks of laziness. Kevin O is back in front with 38 points. Congrats on what is an ever-changing field, but hopefully someone (anyone? please?) can get into the 50+ range. I’m sure someone can do it! I’m currently in — well let’s not talk about what place I’m in. Instead, let’s talk about Pythagorean Expectation in soccer. This may get a little nerdy, but strap your thinking caps and let’s go for a quick ride.
We’ve discussed Pythagorean Expectation in the past, but if you need a reminder on what has gone on, I’m using 1.36 as my exponent (thanks to good work by reader Jose) and I’m looking at both expected and expected plus actual results–that is, I’m predicting both the overall expected points return, then also calculating the actual plus the expected for the remaining matches. The thing is, four years ago D at the DCenters wrote a post disputing the value of Pythagorean Expectation in football/soccer. I recreated the same R2 evaluation and found that for Pythag (GF1.36/(GF1.36+GA1.36), R2 = 0.9234 and for GF/(GF+GA), R2 = 0.9318. So you can see that simply removing the exponents is a better predictor than using Pythag.
For those of you still awake: the same is true when you take the compiled information from the last 10 years. What I did was took the place, rather than the team, so champions were all added together (sorry for you Barça-not-being-mixed-with-Real-Madrid purists) and so on down to twentieth place because teams change thanks to this whole relegation and promotion thing you may have heard of. The R2 for 1.36 was a paltry 0.9318 while for no exponent it was 0.9938.
I’m going to continue to check out Pythagorean Expectation and fiddle with various things and we’ll definitely discuss this topic further in the future. I’m new to this whole thing still, so I’m learning a lot about it every time I play around with it, which is what keeps drawing me back in.
Finally, I’ll be updating the Where to Watch page soon with some new information. Thank you to everyone who has sent in various places and I apologize for the delay in getting things up. I’ll also be updating the Schedule page with links to the various Previews and Reviews.